区域客运系统能耗驱动机制、测算模型及控制方法研究

发布时间：2018-11-09 11:03

【摘要】：能源作为人们生产、生活的物质基础,直接制约着一个国家国民经济的发展水平,能源的发展问题成为一个国家、一个地区关注的焦点。而目前能源的发展与环境保护之间的矛盾日益突出,节能减排被纳入国民经济发展的中长期规划。交通运输业作为基础性产业,它依托于能源的发展,成为六大能源消耗产业部门之一,在促进区域社会经济发展的同时也使得人们的出行越来越便捷,但它惊人的增长速度也为能源和环境造成巨大的负担。旅客运输作为整个交通运输系统的重要组成部分,其节能减排根本目标是以最低的能耗完成最大的旅客运输需求。为实现区域客运系统的节能减排,本文以区域客运系统能耗作为研究对象,对客运系统能耗增长的驱动机制进行分析,分析客运系统能耗的增长与各驱动因素之间的关系,为客运系统能耗的控制方法提供依据。本文将系统动力学与区域客运系统能耗相结合,按照系统动力学的建模步骤建立区域客运系统能耗的SD模型,对区域客运系统能耗进行全面分析。首先,论文在深入分析区域客运系统能耗增长的内外在驱动机制的基础上,辨别出区域客运系统能耗的影响因素;其次,通过对社会经济、人口数量、运输结构、能耗结构、能耗强度等因素与区域客运系统能耗之间因果关系的分析,利用Vensim软件,建立区域客运系统能耗的SD模型;最后,以陕西省为例进行实证分析,利用陕西省历史数据对所建模型进行模型检验,并通过情景分析法,对各影响因素设定不同的情景,定量分析各因素的变化对客运系统总能耗的影响,最终找到降低客运系统能耗的有效控制方法,为陕西省客运系统能耗的降低提供依据。
[Abstract]:Energy, as the material basis of people's production and life, directly restricts the development level of a country's national economy. The development of energy has become the focus of attention of a country and a region. At present, the contradiction between energy development and environmental protection is increasingly prominent, energy saving and emission reduction are included in the medium and long term planning of national economic development. As a basic industry, transportation industry, relying on the development of energy, has become one of the six major energy consumption industries. It promotes the development of regional social economy and makes people travel more and more convenient. But its astonishing growth rate also places a huge burden on energy and the environment. Passenger transport as an important part of the whole transportation system, its basic goal of energy saving and emission reduction is to achieve the maximum passenger transport demand with the lowest energy consumption. In order to realize the energy saving and emission reduction of the regional passenger transport system, this paper takes the energy consumption of the regional passenger transport system as the research object, analyzes the driving mechanism of the energy consumption growth of the passenger transport system, and analyzes the relationship between the increase of the energy consumption of the passenger transport system and the various driving factors. It provides the basis for the control method of energy consumption of passenger transportation system. This paper combines the system dynamics with the energy consumption of regional passenger transport system, establishes the SD model of regional passenger transport system energy consumption according to the modeling steps of system dynamics, and makes a comprehensive analysis of regional passenger transport system energy consumption. Firstly, on the basis of deeply analyzing the internal and external driving mechanism of regional passenger transport system energy consumption growth, the paper distinguishes the influencing factors of regional passenger transport system energy consumption. Secondly, by analyzing the causal relationship between social economy, population, transportation structure, energy consumption intensity and regional passenger transport system energy consumption, the SD model of regional passenger transport system energy consumption is established by using Vensim software. Finally, take Shaanxi Province as an example to carry on the empirical analysis, uses the Shaanxi Province historical data to carry on the model test, and through the scene analysis method, sets the different situation to each influence factor, Quantitative analysis of the influence of various factors on the total energy consumption of passenger transport system, finally find the effective control method to reduce the energy consumption of passenger transport system, and provide the basis for the reduction of energy consumption of passenger transport system in Shaanxi Province.
【学位授予单位】：长安大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：U111

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