海湾悬浮隧道运营期风险评价研究

发布时间：2019-04-19 12:55

【摘要】：风险评价研究是工程项目前期研究的重要问题之一,风险因素的疏忽或者风险因素考虑不全都将导致项目的损失,然而更多的是未预见风险的出现。悬浮隧道作为一种新型的交通结构物,与其他跨海通道相比,对周围环境的影响小,可以全天候工作,节省能耗。但是其风险也是不容忽视的,怎样进行风险分析和选择哪种水中悬浮隧道风险评估方法已成为制约水下悬浮隧道顺利发展的重要环节。本文首先对悬浮隧道的概念、结构组成和风险评价做了理论综述。其次对国内外海底隧道的运营现状深入了解后,针对海湾悬浮隧道的特点及运营环境,找出悬浮隧道运营过程中存在的风险因素,运用物元识别方法建立悬浮隧道运营期风险的评价指标体系。再次,由于悬浮隧道风险评价项目中有很多不相容的问题,而指标的数据相对较少,因此本文根据物元可拓理论,采用熵值法、层次分析法建立了物元可拓评价模型,据此建立了悬浮隧道运营期的风险评价模型。对风险指标采用可拓集合和关联函数进行定量化分析,使定性的指标也可以定量的表达。确定悬浮隧道风险评估体系的指标权重采用主观赋权值法和客观赋权值法相结合的综合赋权值法,这种方法可以结合主观权重和客观权重的优点,使得权重的确定更加贴近实际。最后应用该模型对琼州海峡跨海工程项目进行了风险分析,通过分析索桥式悬浮隧道、海底隧道、跨海大桥三个方案运营期风险等级的不同,得出假设琼州海峡拟建悬浮隧道需加强对工程结构风险、第三方破坏风险和金融风险的控制,并制定了相应的风险可拓措施。本论文对悬浮隧道所处的运营环境进行了详细的分析,找到了运营期存在的主要风险因素,并运用风险评价的理论,解决了隧道运营期的风险定量化研究的问题,以期评价成果可以为项目的管理者提供定量化的决策依据。
[Abstract]:Risk assessment is one of the important problems in the previous study of engineering projects. The negligence of risk factors or the consideration of risk factors will not all lead to the loss of the project, but more often, the occurrence of unforeseen risks. As a new type of traffic structure, suspension tunnel has less influence on the surrounding environment than other cross-sea channels, and can work all-weather and save energy consumption. However, its risk can not be ignored, how to carry out risk analysis and select which method of risk assessment for underwater suspension tunnel has become an important link to restrict the smooth development of underwater suspension tunnel. In this paper, the concept, structure composition and risk assessment of suspension tunnel are summarized. Secondly, after an in-depth understanding of the operating situation of subsea tunnels at home and abroad, according to the characteristics and operating environment of the suspended tunnel in the bay, the risk factors in the operation process of the suspended tunnel are found out. Using matter element identification method to establish the risk evaluation index system of suspension tunnel during operation. Thirdly, because there are many incompatible problems in the risk assessment project of suspension tunnel, and the index data are relatively few, this paper establishes the matter element extension evaluation model based on matter-element extension theory, using entropy method and analytic hierarchy process (AHP), and then sets up the model of matter-element extension evaluation by using entropy method and analytic hierarchy process (AHP). Based on this, a risk assessment model for suspension tunnel operation period is established. The risk index is quantitatively analyzed by extension set and correlation function, so that the qualitative index can also be expressed quantitatively. The index weight of the risk assessment system of suspension tunnel is determined by the comprehensive weight method which combines subjective weight method and objective weight method. This method can combine the advantages of subjective weight and objective weight. Make the determination of weight closer to reality. Finally, the risk analysis of Qiongzhou Strait cross-sea project is carried out by using this model. By analyzing the different risk levels of the three schemes, namely, cable-bridge suspension tunnel, subsea tunnel and cross-sea bridge during the operation period, It is assumed that the proposed suspension tunnel in Qiongzhou Strait needs to strengthen the control of structural risk, third-party damage risk and financial risk, and the corresponding risk extension measures have been formulated. This paper makes a detailed analysis of the operating environment of the suspension tunnel, finds the main risk factors existing in the operation period, and solves the problem of the quantitative study on the risk of the tunnel operation period by using the theory of risk evaluation. In order to evaluate the results of the project managers can provide quantitative decision-making basis.
【学位授予单位】：中国海洋大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：U458

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