兰新高铁隧道运营安全风险评价及预警方法研究

发布时间：2019-07-06 12:55

【摘要】：近些年来,中国铁路总公司高度重视铁路安全风险管理问题,基于高速铁路高速度、高可靠性和高安全性的要求,我国将高速铁路安全风险管理工作放到了重中之重的地位。兰新高铁作为中国首条修建在高寒高原地区的高速铁路,其地理环境和自然环境错综复杂,沿线分布隧道64座,隧道总长185.15公里,占全线总长的10.42%。由于隧道自身结构空间的封闭性,影响隧道运营安全的风险因素更具隐蔽性、复杂性和不确定性,使得兰新高铁隧道运营安全风险管理更具挑战性,如何对兰新高铁隧道运营安全风险进行科学评价和精准预警成为兰新高铁风险管理的一项重要工作。论文首先从"人—物—管—环" 4个方面对兰新高铁隧道运营安全风险致灾因子进行了识别、分析和标准化处理,构建了风险评价指标体系,并制定了风险可能性评定、风险后果严重等级评定、风险等级评定和风险等级接受准则等兰新高铁隧道运营安全风险等级评定相关标准。其次,针对兰新高铁隧道运营安全风险评价问题,构建了评价指标集和结果集,确定了指标权重,构造了指标隶属度函数,建立了二级模糊综合评价计算模型。并以高家山隧道为例,将其下行划分成64个200m长单元网格进行实例计算,验证了模型的有效性和适用性。再次,研究了兰新高铁隧道运营安全风险预警等级划分、预警指标危险等级评定标准和基于耦合叠加方法的风险预警等级确定等标准,制定了基于信息技术手段的预警信息发布流程,提出了风险预警指标相应的风险预控对策。最后,介绍了论文研究成果的应用情况:作者在参与铁路总公司科研项目《兰新高铁工务安全风险管理系统》过程中,将相关研究成果应用到该系统的隧道运营安全风险评价与预警子系统的开发工作中,并完成了系统模块的设计与实现。
文内图片：

图片说明：图１－２兰州铁路局管辖范围内沿线隧道分布图逡逑Ｆｉｇｕｒｅ邋１－２邋Ｔｕｎｎｅｌ邋Ｄｉｓｔｒｉｂｕｔｉｏｎ邋Ｍａｐ邋ａｌｏｎｇ邋ｔｈｅ邋Ｒａｉｌｗａｙ邋ｗｉｔｈｉｎ邋ｔｈｅ邋Ｊｕｒｉｓｄｉｃｔｉｏｎ邋ｏｆ逡逑
[Abstract]:In recent years, China Railway Corporation attaches great importance to railway safety risk management. Based on the requirements of high speed, high reliability and high safety of high-speed railway, China has put high-speed railway safety risk management in the most important position. Lanxin high-speed railway is the first high-speed railway built in the alpine plateau in China. Its geographical environment and natural environment are complex. 64 tunnels are distributed along the route, with a total length of 185.15 kilometers, accounting for 10.42 percent of the total length of the line. Due to the closure of tunnel structure space, the risk factors affecting tunnel operation safety are more hidden, complex and uncertain, which makes the operation safety risk management of Lanxin high-speed rail tunnel more challenging. How to evaluate and accurately warn the operation safety risk of Lanxin high-speed rail tunnel becomes an important work of Lanxin high-speed railway risk management. Firstly, this paper identifies, analyzes and standardizes the risk factors of Lanxin high-speed rail tunnel operation safety from four aspects of "human-material-management-ring", constructs the risk evaluation index system, and formulates the relevant standards of Lanxin high-speed rail tunnel operation safety risk grade assessment, such as risk possibility assessment, risk consequence serious grade assessment, risk grade assessment and risk grade acceptance criterion. Secondly, aiming at the problem of safety risk assessment of Lanxin high-speed railway tunnel operation, the evaluation index set and result set are constructed, the index weight is determined, the index membership function is constructed, and the two-level fuzzy comprehensive evaluation calculation model is established. Taking Gaojiashan Tunnel as an example, the model is divided into 64 200m long element grids for example, and the effectiveness and applicability of the model are verified. Thirdly, the classification of safety risk early warning grade, the evaluation standard of early warning index risk grade and the determination of risk early warning grade based on coupling superposition method are studied, the early warning information release flow based on information technology means is established, and the corresponding risk pre-control countermeasures of risk early warning index are put forward. Finally, the application of the research results of the paper is introduced: in the process of participating in the scientific research project of Lanxin High Speed Railway Engineering Safety risk Management system, the author applies the relevant research results to the development of tunnel operation safety risk assessment and early warning subsystem of the system, and completes the design and implementation of the system module.
【学位授予单位】：北京交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：U458

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