缅甸皎漂深水油轮碰撞事故定量风险评估研究

发布时间：2021-11-17 11:33

　　危险货物运输,尤其是原油,通过船舶从一个地方转运至别处,对全球经济的发展至关重要。与此同时,由于自然灾害、人为等因素,各主要海域的船舶水运事故频率大幅上升,这其中就包括船舶碰撞。油轮发生碰撞事故,首要的威胁是船员的人身财产安全,并有可能造成当地环境污染。本文主要通过国际海事组织（IMO）的正式安全评估（FSA）,对缅甸皎漂深水港内的双层壳油轮碰撞事故进行定量风险评估,利用ANSYS 14.0软件的显示动力学模块,通过碰撞模型,模拟各型油轮（VLCC、苏伊士型、阿芙拉型、巴拿马型等）真实尺寸的碰撞,预测碰撞事故对船体结构损害情况,并分析原油泄漏入海可能的量,然后根据当地油轮类型、船舶流量、水文等数据,以及相关历史事故统计,分析油轮发生碰撞的频率、污染物泄漏频率、船体损害频率和船员死亡频率等。油轮碰撞事故后果分析同样重要,本文通过蒙特卡洛模拟,定量化的分析十万次的随机变量事件,尽可能的将事故后果造成的环境损害、社会和经济损害,用货币损失的方式呈现出来,直观感受某次油轮事故的危害程度。统计每个可能情境的风险后,分析总的风险潜在人命损失（PLL）、潜在污染损失（PLC）和潜在财产损失（PLP）... 

【文章来源】：大连海事大学辽宁省 211工程院校

【文章页数】：70 页

【学位级别】：硕士

【文章目录】：
摘要
Abstract
Chapter 1 Introduction
    1.1 Background
    1.2 Aims and objectives
    1.3 Thesis outline
    1.4 Literature review
    1.5 Research study area
Chapter 2 Hazardous Identification
    2.1 Modeling of target structures
    2.2 Ship to ship collision simulation(ANSYS simulation)
    2.3 Analytical oil outflow calculation
        2.3.1 Side damage of a single hull tank spill model
        2.3.2 Side damage of a double hull tank spill model
    2.4 Three dimensional numerical simulation on oil leakage
    2.5 Analysis of simulation results
    2.6 Summary of results
Chapter 3 Collision Frequency Analysis
    3.1 Chapter overview
    3.2 Pedersen's Crossing Waterway Model
    3.3 Damage probability analysis
        3.3.1 Oil spill frequency
        3.3.2 Hull damage frequency
        3.3.3 Frequency for crews' fatality
    3.4 Summary of frequencies calculation results
Chapter 4 Collision Consequences Analysis
    4.1 Overview of consequences analysis
    4.2 Environmental metrics
    4.3 Economic Metrics
    4.4 Social Metrics
    4.5 Monte Carlo simulation for consequences costs and summary results
    4.6 Results summary
Chapter 5 Risk Assessment and Risk Acceptance Criteria
    5.1 Collision Risk Assessment
    5.2 ALARP border risk acceptance criteria
        5.2.1 Social risk acceptance criteria(F-N curve)
        5.2.2 Environmental risk acceptance criteria(F-T curve)
        5.2.3 Property risk criteria(F-P curve)
    5.3 Summary of risk level
Chapter 6 Conclusion and Recommendation
    6.1 Conclusion
    6.2 Recommendation
Reference
Appendix A: Probability distribution function for Panamax and Bulk carrier incident
Appendix B: Probability distribution function for Aframax and Container incident
Appendix C: Probability distribution function for Aframax and Bulk carrier incident
Appendix D: Probability distribution function for Suezmax and Container incident
Appendix E: Probability distribution function for Suezmax and Bulk carrier incident
Appendix F: Probability distribution function for VLCC and Container incident
Appendix G: Probability distribution function for VLCC and Bulk carrier incident
Appendix H: Coordinate values for F-N diagram
Appendix I: Coordinate values for F-P diagram
Appendix J: Coordinate values for F-T diagram
Acknowledgement
Author Introduction
Published Papers during Degree Study



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