基于乘客选择习惯变化的机场长途巴士时刻表动态优化研究

发布时间：2017-12-28 00:07

本文关键词：基于乘客选择习惯变化的机场长途巴士时刻表动态优化研究　出处：《大连海事大学》2015年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：随着民航业的快速发展,中国机场数量不断增加,逐渐出现多个机场服务同一区域的现象(多机场区域)。在多机场区域中,机场间竞争日趋激烈,为吸引更多腹地客源,一些机场推出新型的集疏运服务“机场长途巴士”来增强自身的竞争力。对提供新服务的机场来说,其市场份额会在市场平衡被打破后逐渐上升,并在下一个市场平衡状态形成时回归平稳,整个上升过程通常叫做市场培育期。由于培育期内“机场长途巴士”时刻表对加快和增大市场份额的增长非常关键,因此本文在模拟乘客长期需求演变的基础上,利用时刻表、机票价格与市场份额间的互动关系,以最大化培育期内市场份额增幅与增速、最小化运营成本为目标动态优化培育期内的“机场长途巴士”单条线路及整个线网的时刻表。首先,在考虑时刻表与机场市场份额之间互动关系的基础上,构建习惯影响下的机场选择决策模型与习惯演变模型,实现对“机场长途巴士”开通后乘客机场选择行为和选择习惯同步转变过程的模拟,并得到培育期内机场市场份额随时间逐渐演变的过程。其次,基于培育期内乘客需求的模拟数据,针对机场与单个城市间的“机场长途巴士”服务,以培育期最短、市场份额增幅最大和运营成本最低为多重目标,建立培育期内时刻表的动态优化模型,并设计针对多目标优化问题的启发式算法。接下来,将研究范围由一条线路扩展到整个线网,基于时刻表、机票价格和市场份额之间的复杂互动关系,在单条线路时刻表动态优化模型的基础上加入航空公司机票定价模型,建立培育期内“机场长途巴士”线网的时刻表动态优化模型,同时设计求解算法。研究结果表明乘客选择习惯的转变是引起机场市场份额在培育期内逐渐变化的潜在原因；在培育期内合理设计新服务的运营方案有助于快速培养乘客的习惯,并最大化新服务的实施效果；同时,考虑新服务和其他影响习惯转变的因素之间可能存在的联动关系,能够减弱外部环境变化对新服务实施效果产生的抑制作用。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of the civil aviation industry, the number of airports in China is increasing, and there are many airport services in the same area (multi airport area). In the airport area, airport competition, in order to attract more tourists to launch some airport hinterland, transportation service "new airport bus" to enhance their competitiveness. For the airports that provide new services, their market share will gradually increase after the market equilibrium is broken, and will return smoothly when the next market equilibrium state is formed. The whole rise process is usually called the market incubation period. The cultivation period "airport bus timetable" to accelerate and increase the market share growth is very important, so this paper based long term evolution of demand in the simulation of passengers, the schedule, ticket price and market share of the interactive relationship between the cultivation period, to maximize market share growth and growth, minimize operating costs objective dynamic optimization cultivation period within the "airport bus" single line and the line network schedule. First of all, considering the relation of the interaction between the schedule and the airport market share, build habits under the influence of airport choice decision-making model and habit evolution model, simulation of the airport bus after the opening of passenger choice behavior and habit synchronous transition process, and get the process of cultivating market share gradually evolved within the period of the airport with time. Secondly, the simulation data based on the needs of the passengers in the incubation period, according to the airport with a single city between the airport bus service, with the shortest incubation period, the largest market share increase and the lowest operation cost for multiple objectives, establish dynamic optimization model within the period of time table, and for the design of heuristic algorithm for multiobjective optimization problems the. Next, the scope of the study will be a line by line extended to the entire network, complex interactive relationship between the schedule, ticket price and market share between the ticket pricing model based on joining the airline based on single line schedule dynamic optimization model, set up a training period "coach" network schedule optimization at the same time model, algorithm design. The results show that the choice of passenger habits change is a potential cause of the airport market share gradually changed during the cultivation period; the operation scheme of rational design of new services in the cultivation period contribute to the fast passenger train habits, and implement the maximum effectiveness of the new service; at the same time, the linkage relationship may exist between the factors change new service and other effects of habits, changes in the external environment can weaken the effect of the implementation of the new service.
【学位授予单位】：大连海事大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：V354;U492.4

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