基于多元线性回归的湖北省最低工资标准对就业的影响研究

发布时间：2018-02-11 00:13

本文关键词： 就业最低工资标准多元线性回归稳健估计湖北省　出处：《长江大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：我国最低工资制度自诞生以来,在社会保障方面扮演着极其重要的作用,受到社会各界的广泛关注。在二十多年的发展过程中,伴随着工资水平的不断上涨,最低工资对社会经济的影响逐渐显现。近年来,最低工资对就业的影响引起了研究者的高度关注。湖北省近年来最低工资标准快速上涨,其涨速显著高于沿海地区,这导致企业劳动成本快速上涨,必然促使企业调整用工需求,进而引起就业水平的变化。本文将基于湖北省统计数据,在控制就业影响因素的情况下实证研究最低工资变动对就业的影响效应,并根据实证研究结果提出相应的政策建议,这有助于缓解最低工资上涨对就业的冲击,促进就业健康发展。论文主要研究内容包括以下几个部分:(1)在考察和梳理国内外研究成果的基础上,阐述了当前最低工资对就业影响的主流观点,并评述了最低工资对就业影响的理论模型;(2)在介绍湖北省最低工资实施现状的基础上,先利用加权平均的方法计算湖北省最低工资标准,再利用物价平减方法对加权平均最低工资标准进行处理,最后对湖北省1995年至2015年的最低工资标准进行比较;(3)分析湖北省近年来的就业状况,并对湖北省1995-2014年的就业趋势进行分析;(4)基于多元线性回归模型实证分析湖北省最低工资标准变动对就业的影响,并针对最低工资标准的调整、最低工资制度的完善、就业市场与就业等方面提出相应的政策建议。研究结果表明,湖北省最低工资标准在1995-2006年、2007-2015年存在明显的阶段特征,城镇劳动就业在1995-2000、2001-2008、2009-2014年呈现明显的阶段特征。实证研究显示湖北省最低工资标准上涨对就业存在显著的当期负向效应和滞后的正向效应,本文由此推断湖北省最低工资上涨对就业的影响存在一定的自我修正效应。在综合考虑实际最低工资的滞后效应后,实际最低工资上涨10%将导致就业水平下降0.7个百分点。
[Abstract]:Since the birth of the minimum wage system in our country, it has played an extremely important role in social security, and has received extensive attention from all walks of life. In the course of more than 20 years of development, the wage level has been rising continuously. The impact of the minimum wage on the social economy has gradually become apparent. In recent years, the impact of the minimum wage on employment has aroused great concern among researchers. In Hubei Province, the minimum wage standard has risen rapidly in recent years, and its rate of increase is significantly higher than that in coastal areas. This will lead to a rapid rise in labor costs of enterprises, which will inevitably prompt enterprises to adjust their demand for employment and thus cause changes in the level of employment. This paper will be based on the statistical data of Hubei Province. In the case of controlling the factors affecting employment, this paper empirically studies the effect of the change of minimum wage on employment, and puts forward corresponding policy recommendations according to the results of empirical research, which helps to alleviate the impact of the rise of minimum wage on employment. The main research contents of this paper include the following parts: 1) on the basis of reviewing and combing the domestic and foreign research results, this paper expounds the mainstream view of the influence of minimum wage on employment. On the basis of introducing the present situation of the implementation of minimum wage in Hubei Province, this paper first uses the weighted average method to calculate the minimum wage standard in Hubei Province. Then the weighted average minimum wage is processed by the method of price reduction. Finally, a comparison of the minimum wage standards between 1995 and 2015 in Hubei Province is made. (3) the employment situation in Hubei Province in recent years is analyzed. Based on the multiple linear regression model, the paper empirically analyzes the influence of the change of the minimum wage standard on the employment in Hubei Province, and aims at the adjustment of the minimum wage standard and the perfection of the minimum wage system. The research results show that the minimum wage in Hubei Province has obvious stage characteristics in 1995-2006 and 2007-2015. Urban labor employment showed obvious stage characteristics in 1995-200and 2001-2008 / 2009-2014. The empirical study shows that the rising minimum wage in Hubei Province has a significant negative effect on employment in the current period and a backward positive effect. This paper concludes that the effect of minimum wage increase on employment in Hubei Province has a self-correcting effect. After considering the lag effect of the actual minimum wage, the actual minimum wage increase of 10% will lead to a decrease of 0.7 percentage points in the employment level.
【学位授予单位】：长江大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F224;F249.24

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