运行状态切换下的设备剩余寿命预测

发布时间：2018-03-05 21:03

本文选题：剩余寿命估计　切入点：运行状态切换　出处：《电光与控制》2017年02期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：在工程实际中,很多系统在其寿命周期中都存在贮存和工作状态的切换,且运行状态的切换对设备的退化过程有较大影响,而当前缺少相应的研究。鉴于此,本文系统考虑了运行状态切换和状态持续时间的随机性以及不同状态有不同退化率等关键问题,利用连续时间马尔可夫链(CTMC)建立了刻画贮存-工作状态切换的系统运行模型,得到运行状态切换时间、切换次数、状态持续时间的联合概率分布,并将其融入随机系数回归模型,实现退化系统的剩余寿命估计。仿真试验表明,所提方法能有效实现运行状态切换下的系统剩余寿命估计。
[Abstract]:In engineering practice, many systems have storage and working state switching in their life cycle, and the switching of operation state has a great influence on the degradation process of equipment, but there is a lack of corresponding research at present. In this paper, the key problems such as the randomness of state switching and state duration, and the different degradation rates of different states are considered systematically. A system operation model describing storage-working state switching is established by using continuous time Markov chain (CTMCC). The joint probability distribution of the running state switching time, the switching times and the state duration is obtained, and it is incorporated into the stochastic coefficient regression model to estimate the residual life of the degenerate system. The simulation results show that, The proposed method can effectively estimate the residual life of the system under operating state switching.
【作者单位】：火箭军工程大学;
【基金】：国家杰出青年基金(61025014) 国家自然科学基金(61573365,61174030,61104223,61374120)
【分类号】：O213.2

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