基于早期监测病例的埃博拉病毒传播风险评估

发布时间：2018-03-09 06:41

  本文选题：埃博拉病毒　切入点：传染病传播　出处：《清华大学学报(自然科学版)》2017年08期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：基本再生数是传染病动力学中反映传染病传播潜力最重要的参数,对基本再生数的估算是传染病传播风险评估工作的核心内容。该文针对2013年末发生于西非的埃博拉疫情的风险评估问题,提出了改进的最小二乘法作为疫情参数拟合方法,并对该次埃博拉疫情中3个重灾区国家(几内亚、塞拉利昂、利比里亚)境内的早期疫情数据进行了拟合,估算出了疫情的基本再生数,拟合结果与实际数据吻合得较好;通过分析几内亚境内疫情的早期数据,改进前人研究中所采用的基于均匀混合假设的易感者S(susceptible)、携带者E(exposed)、传染者I(infectious)以及移出者R(removed)(SEIR)模型,提出了多次疫情假说模型,较好地解释了几内亚境内疫情数据波动现象。该文提出的拟合标准和传染病动力学建模思路对于确定病毒传播性质、评估防疫措施效果、预测传播趋势以及遏制未来可能出现的疫情有着重要意义。
[Abstract]:The basic regeneration number is the most important parameter reflecting the transmission potential of infectious diseases in the dynamics of infectious diseases. The estimation of the number of basic regeneration is the core of the risk assessment of infectious disease transmission. In this paper, an improved least square method is proposed as a fitting method for the epidemic parameters in view of the risk assessment of Ebola outbreak that occurred in West Africa in end of 2013. The data of the early epidemic situation in the three worst affected countries (Guinea, Sierra Leone, Liberia) were fitted, and the basic regenerative number of the epidemic was estimated. The fitting results were in good agreement with the actual data. By analyzing the early data of the epidemic situation in Guinea and improving the models used in previous studies, which are based on the hypothesis of uniform mixing of susceptible individuals, carriers Eexposedus, infectious individuals, and emigrants, the multiple epidemic hypothesis models are put forward. The fluctuation phenomenon of epidemic data in Guinea is well explained. The fitting standard and the idea of infectious disease dynamics modeling are put forward in this paper to determine the nature of virus transmission and to evaluate the effect of epidemic prevention measures. It is important to predict the trend of transmission and to contain possible outbreaks in the future.
【作者单位】： 清华大学工程物理系公共安全研究院;
【基金】：国家科技支撑计划课题(2015BAk12B03)
【分类号】：O175;R512.8
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本文编号：1587433