随机产出环境下竞争性生产商的快速反应策略研究

发布时间：2018-03-14 14:52

本文选题：随机产出　切入点：快速反应　出处：《清华大学》2015年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：快速反应是生产商应对市场需求变化的一种机制,它凭借快速的生产,使得生产商能够临近销售期再做出生产的决策,从而获得更准确的需求信息,这样不仅可以减少库存过多造成的浪费,还能更好的满足市场需求以避免消费者流失。然而快速反应机制也存在一些弊端,例如缩短提前期有可能造成产出的随机性。虽然讨论产出随机性以及快速反应机制的研究非常丰富,但是把这两个因素结合起来的研究大多考虑的是垄断的情形,并且数量非常有限。本文的主要研究目的是分析随机产出环境下竞争性生产商如何对快速反应机制进行决策。本文首先建立了一个两阶段的博弈模型来描述随机产出环境下两个竞争性生产商的生产方式和产量决策问题,并对产量决策问题进行了求解。在生产商同质的情形下,我们刻画了纳什均衡并讨论了产出及需求的随机性对生产商决策及期望利润的影响。本文发现,随着市场波动性的增加,生产商更倾向于采用快速反应机制;由于产出随机性的存在,在两个同质生产商的情形下有可能出现不对称均衡。在生产商异质的情形下,我们也刻画了纳什均衡并讨论了产出及需求的随机性对生产商决策及期望利润的影响。我们发现在需求及其波动都较小的情形下,产出确定的生产商不会选择快速反应生产,产出随机的生产商会选择快速反应生产。最后本文把上述模型推广到了多个同质生产商的情形,解析的给出了博弈的均衡解,并数值的分析了生产商总数、随机产出率、需求波动性以及生产成本对均衡的影响。本文的主要创新及贡献是:(1)本文首次在竞争环境下考虑了随机产出对生产商快速反应机制决策的影响;(2)本文对两个竞争性生产商的纯策略纳什均衡进行了刻画,在生产商同质的情形下,我们对均衡解的敏感性进行了分析,在异质生产商的情形下,通过假设随机产出率服从均匀分布,我们也分析了均衡解的敏感性;(3)本文解析的得到了多个同质竞争性生产商的博弈均衡解,并通过数值算例对均衡的敏感性进行了分析。
[Abstract]:Rapid response is a mechanism for producers to respond to changes in market demand. It enables producers to make production decisions near the sales period and obtain more accurate demand information by means of rapid production. This can not only reduce the waste caused by excessive inventory, but also better meet the market demand to avoid the loss of consumers. However, there are some drawbacks in the rapid response mechanism. For example, shortening the lead time may lead to the randomness of the output. Although the research on the randomness of the output and the mechanism of rapid reaction is very rich, most of the studies that combine these two factors consider the monopoly situation. The main purpose of this paper is to analyze how competitive producers make decisions on the rapid response mechanism in a stochastic output environment. Firstly, a two-stage game model is established to describe the randomness. Production and production decisions of two competitive producers in an output environment, In this paper, we describe Nash equilibrium and discuss the effect of randomness of output and demand on producer decision and expected profit. As market volatility increases, producers tend to adopt a rapid response mechanism; because of the randomness of output, asymmetrical equilibrium may occur in the case of two homogeneous producers. We also describe Nash equilibrium and discuss the impact of randomness of output and demand on producer decisions and expected profits. Finally, the model is extended to the case of multiple homogeneous producers, the equilibrium solution of the game is given analytically, and the total number of producers, the random output rate are numerically analyzed. The influence of demand volatility and production cost on equilibrium. The main innovation and contribution of this paper is: 1) for the first time in a competitive environment, this paper considers the impact of random output on the decision of the manufacturer's rapid response mechanism. The pure strategy Nash equilibrium of sex producer is described. In the case of homogeneous manufacturer, we analyze the sensitivity of equilibrium solution. In the case of heterogeneous producer, we assume that the random yield is uniformly distributed. We also analyze the sensitivity of equilibrium solutions. In this paper, we obtain the game equilibrium solutions of many homogeneous competitive manufacturers, and analyze the equilibrium sensitivity by numerical examples.
【学位授予单位】：清华大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F274;F224.32

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