寨卡病毒传播潜力与控制策略有效性分析

发布时间：2018-03-16 05:26

本文选题：寨卡病毒　切入点：基本再生数　出处：《应用数学和力学》2017年11期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：目前寨卡病毒已在超过65个国家和地区传播,为了估计新加坡寨卡病毒的传播潜力和有关控制策略的有效性,首先采用经典的传染病模型并结合累计报告病例数,借助最小二乘法和MCMC方法进行模型参数估计,寻求拟合累计病例数最佳的参数集合及其相应的置信区间.进而根据再生矩阵法求得的基本再生数公式,得到了新加坡寨卡爆发的阈值参数R0的估计值和置信区间,通过对比分析验证了新加坡寨卡病毒传播基本再生数的可靠性.之后,分析了累计病例数对各个关键参数的敏感性,探讨针对寨卡病毒传播控制策略的有效性.结果表明:在对新加坡寨卡病毒的控制中,需要通过增加检疫次数和检疫率、对患者进行隔离以及有效地灭蚊,并且通过减少疫区的游客数量达到控制疫情的效果.
[Abstract]:At present, Zika virus has been spread in more than 65 countries and regions. In order to estimate the transmission potential of Singapore Zika virus and the effectiveness of relevant control strategies, the classic infectious disease model and the cumulative number of reported cases are first used. By using the least square method and MCMC method to estimate the parameters of the model, the best parameter set and its corresponding confidence interval are found to fit the accumulative number of cases, and then the formula of the basic reproducing number is obtained by the method of reproducing matrix. The estimated value and confidence interval of threshold parameter R0 of Singapore Zika outbreak are obtained, and the reliability of the basic reproduction number of Singapore Zika virus transmission is verified by comparative analysis. After that, the sensitivity of the cumulative number of cases to each key parameter is analyzed. To explore the effectiveness of the control strategy for Zika virus transmission, the results show that in the control of the Singapore Zika virus, it is necessary to isolate the patients and effectively kill mosquitoes by increasing the quarantine frequency and quarantine rate. And by reducing the number of visitors to the epidemic area to achieve the effect of the epidemic.
【作者单位】：陕西师范大学数学与信息科学学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金(11471201;11631012)~~
【分类号】：O212.1

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