PPP项目中融资效率的评价及优化研究

发布时间：2018-03-31 06:22

本文选题：PPP　切入点：融资效率　出处：《北京邮电大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：我国发改委于2015年对PPP模式进行了大力推介,两个批次的推介项目总投资达3.5万亿元,总计包含2125个项目。可见通过吸引社会资金来参与基础设施的建设已经成了我国政府力推的新型模式,在未来很长一段时间中,PPP模式在各个领域的应用必然成为趋势。然而目前对这个新型融资模式的量化模型研究仍然有限,导致项目在决策和实施过程中缺乏可靠的理论依据。尤其是在其融资效率的研究方面,作为PPP融资模式的主要特征和优势,对其融资效率的评价和优化研究将有力的支撑此模式的科学化应用和推广。论文以PPP项目自身为研究对象和出发点,基于PPP项目中融资效率的相关理论基础,通过对PPP项目的融资效率评价及优化的特征进行分析,将PPP项目融资效率评价和优化问题划分为了 PPP项目融资效率评价、基于模拟的PPP项目融资方案评价和PPP项目融资方案的优化三个子研究问题。研究中,应用了数据包络法建立PPP项目的融资效率评价,结合了 DEA和蒙特卡罗模拟来预测融资方案的可能结果,并通过整合实物期权和博弈论建立了 RO-GM模型对量化不确定性的总投资进行最优分配。最终通过整合得到系统性的PPP项目融资效率评价和优化模型。通过应用本文的模型,可得到具体PPP项目包含融资效率相对有效性、融资方案目标值、融资方案实施结果概率分布和优化融资总额、最优投资分配策略在内的整体PPP项目融资效率评价和优化结果。对此结果的有效应用可在PPP项目实施的不同阶段均发挥实际的应用价值,用可视化的数据依据提供决策支持,并可在PPP模式的推广过程中应用科学的方法为其应用和普及提供理论参考。
[Abstract]:The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) vigorously introduced the PPP model in 2015, with a total investment of 3.5 trillion yuan for the two batches of promotion projects. There are a total of 2125 projects. It can be seen that attracting social funds to participate in the construction of infrastructure has become a new model pushed by our government. For a long time in the future, the application of PPP model in various fields will become a trend. However, the research on the quantitative model of this new financing model is still limited. It leads to the lack of reliable theoretical basis in the decision-making and implementation of the project, especially in the research of its financing efficiency, as the main characteristics and advantages of the PPP financing model. The evaluation and optimization of its financing efficiency will support the scientific application and popularization of this model. This paper takes the PPP project itself as the research object and starting point, based on the related theory foundation of the financing efficiency in the PPP project. By analyzing the characteristics of the evaluation and optimization of the financing efficiency of the PPP project, the evaluation and optimization of the financing efficiency of the PPP project are divided into the evaluation of the financing efficiency of the PPP project. There are three sub-studies on the evaluation of PPP project financing scheme based on simulation and the optimization of PPP project financing scheme. In the study, the data envelopment method is applied to establish the evaluation of the financing efficiency of PPP project. Combining DEA and Monte Carlo simulations to predict the possible outcome of the financing scheme, By integrating real options and game theory, the optimal allocation of total investment with quantitative uncertainty is established by RO-GM model. Finally, a systematic evaluation and optimization model of PPP project financing efficiency is obtained by integration. Specific PPP projects can be obtained, including the relative effectiveness of financing efficiency, the target value of the financing scheme, the probability distribution of the results of the implementation of the financing scheme and the optimization of the total amount of financing. The evaluation and optimization results of the overall PPP project financing efficiency including the optimal investment allocation strategy. The effective application of this result can bring into play the practical application value in different stages of the implementation of the PPP project, and provide decision support with visual data basis. The method of applying science can provide theoretical reference for its application and popularization in the process of popularizing PPP model.
【学位授予单位】：北京邮电大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F224;F283

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