浙江省城市经济空间关联性及溢出效应研究

发布时间：2018-04-04 11:03

本文选题：城市经济　切入点：空间自相关　出处：《浙江理工大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：城市经济是区域经济学的重要研究热点,在地区经济发展中也扮演着越来越重要的地位。浙江省经过几十年快速发展,县域经济开始向城市经济转型,为区域经济增长注入新活力。城市经济增长受要素推动,技术改进和制度变革等因素的影响。在要素自由流动和区域关联的背景下,仅从区域内部考虑制约经济增长的因素,忽略空间相关性或空间异质性,有可能导致影响因素的有偏估计。因此立足空间经济视角,讨论空间异质性和空间溢出效应,对突破城市发展困境,重构城市发展体系,拓展浙江省区域经济发展新空间,并带动经济转型有着重要意义。本文以区域经济外部性理论、梯度转移理论和区域经济增长理论等理论为基础,采用1978-2014年浙江省地级市的面板数据,并利用GeoDa软件,对浙江省城市经济空间相关性进行测度,进行全域空间自相关的Moran’I指数和局域自相关的Moran’I指数分析。进一步地,本文采用空间杜宾模型,分设城市邻接矩阵和地理距离矩阵,实证检验了交通基础设施等因素的空间溢出效应,并将空间溢出效应进一步分解,深入剖析各因素空间溢出的直接效应、间接效应及总效应。通过理论和实证分析,本文发现:(1)1978-2014年Moran’I全局指数显著为正,浙江省城市经济呈现出明显的正空间相关性,存在空间集聚现象,经济发展水平高(低)的地区,相互邻接或距离更近。(2)浙江省城市经济空间发展高低集聚现象的南北分异特征明显。浙南地区呈现出较为显著的低低集聚现象。浙北地区则表现出高高集簇现象。(3)本地区经济增长仍旧离不开本地区的要素投入,与古典增长模型相一致。交通基础设施空间溢出效应显著为正,这种溢出效应在本地区和周边地区双向传递。产业升级对周边地区经济增长的影响不显著。(4)周边地区的经济增长能够促进本地区的经济发展,存在直接和间接效应。这种溢出效应的传导不仅是由相邻城市引起,还体现在非邻接的城市之间。文章最后提出应重视浙江省城市经济发展的空间自相关问题,在全面认识空间相关性的前提下,发挥不同渠道的溢出效应,推进区域经济协调发展。
[Abstract]:Urban economy is an important research hotspot in regional economics and plays a more and more important role in regional economic development.After decades of rapid development, county economy began to transform into urban economy, which injected new vitality into regional economic growth.Urban economic growth is driven by factors such as technological improvement and institutional change.Under the background of free flow of elements and regional correlation, only the factors restricting economic growth are considered from within the region, and the spatial correlation or spatial heterogeneity is ignored, which may lead to the biased estimation of the influencing factors.Therefore, it is of great significance to discuss spatial heterogeneity and spatial spillover effects from the perspective of spatial economy, to break through the plight of urban development, to reconstruct the urban development system, to expand the new space of regional economic development in Zhejiang Province, and to promote economic transformation.Based on the theory of regional economic externality, gradient transfer theory and regional economic growth theory, this paper uses the panel data of prefecture-level cities in Zhejiang Province from 1978 to 2014, and measures the spatial correlation of urban economy in Zhejiang Province by using GeoDa software.The global spatial autocorrelation Moran'I exponents and the local autocorrelation Moran'I exponents are analyzed.Furthermore, the spatial spillover effect of traffic infrastructure is tested by using spatial Doberbin model and city proximity matrix and geographical distance matrix, and the spatial spillover effect is further decomposed.The direct effect, indirect effect and total effect of spatial spillover of various factors are deeply analyzed.Through theoretical and empirical analysis, this paper finds that the global index of Moran'I from 1978 to 2014 is significantly positive, the urban economy of Zhejiang Province shows a significant positive spatial correlation, the phenomenon of spatial agglomeration exists, and the level of economic development is high (low).The phenomenon of spatial agglomeration of urban economy in Zhejiang Province is characterized by the difference between north and south.In the south of Zhejiang province, the phenomenon of low and low agglomeration is obvious.The economic growth of this region is still inseparable from the input of its elements, which is consistent with the classical growth model.The spatial spillover effect of traffic infrastructure is significantly positive, and the spillover effect is transmitted in both local and surrounding areas.The impact of industrial upgrading on the economic growth of the surrounding areas is not significant. (4) the economic growth in the surrounding areas can promote the economic development of the region, and there are direct and indirect effects.The transmission of spillover effect is not only caused by adjacent cities, but also between non-adjacent cities.Finally, the paper puts forward that we should pay attention to the spatial autocorrelation of urban economic development in Zhejiang Province, give full play to the spillover effect of different channels and promote the coordinated development of regional economy on the premise of comprehensive understanding of spatial correlation.
【学位授予单位】：浙江理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F224;F299.27

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