互联网金融与传统金融的博弈关系及其板块波动特征

发布时间：2018-04-13 05:18

本文选题：互联网金融 + 传统金融　；参考：《南昌大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：互联网金融发展迅速,对传统金融产生了深刻变革,对中国的金融发展产生了深远影响。互联网金融自诞生以来就引起了学界和业界的广泛关注。互联网金融的异军突起,促进了多层次资本市场、普惠金融的建立和发展,倒逼传统金融的改革和转型,推动金融产品产业的发展和升级,提高了金融化率。但我国互联网金融正处在爆发式发展的初级阶段,带来了很多挑战,也存在很多问题。在此背景下,本文重点研究互联网金融与传统金融的动态博弈关系,并对互联网金融市场的波动特征进行了实证研究。本研究力图廓清我国互联网金融运行现状,阐释互联网金融的本质及其作用效果,运用计量经济学、信息经济学、公共经济学、金融学等相关理论与模型分析互联网金融的模式、运行机制等,并定量研究互联网金融市场的波动特征,在此基础上提出可行的政策建议。本文在结构上共分5章,主要研究了三大问题:一是从理论上分析了互联网金融所引发的改革效应。总结为:互联网金融将互联网精神融入传统金融,给金融发展注入了新的活力;互联网金融模糊了传统金融界限,跨界混搭金融产品层出不穷;互联网金融倒逼传统金融的改革和转型,加速了宏观金融改革和发展进程;移动互联网金融重塑金融形态。二是建立了互联网金融与传统金融的动态演化博弈模型。经过模型分析,本文主要认为:从短期来看,两者选择竞争策略可以减少损失;从长期来看,两者应该选择合作策略,才能使收益最大化。三是实证分析了互联网金融市场的波动特征。通过建立并比较分析多种GARCH类模型,选出了既简单又能够准确刻画互联网金融市场波动特征的最优模型。通过实证分析得出:互联网金融指数收益率不符合正态分布的特征,且具有明显的ARCH效应;拟合效果最好的模型是t分布的GARCH(1,1)模型。本文对于如何促进互联网金融与传统金融共生融合发展提出了政策建议。即明确双方合作共赢的长期战略选择,相互吸纳,取长补短,提升双方共生系统总收益;合力共建基于大数据技术的新型征信系统,降低发展的信息沟通成本,构建良好的信用环境;加快建立能够适应互联网金融的新监管体制,改革现有监管框架,规范互联网金融市场;坚决打击互联网金融诈骗等“伪互联网金融”,优化双方良性互动发展的金融生态环境。
[Abstract]:The rapid development of Internet finance has brought profound changes to the traditional finance and has had a profound impact on the financial development of China.Since the birth of Internet finance, it has attracted wide attention of academic circles and industry.The emergence of Internet finance has promoted the establishment and development of multi-level capital market, the establishment and development of inclusive finance, pushed forward the reform and transformation of traditional finance, promoted the development and upgrading of financial products industry, and improved the financialization rate.However, Internet finance in China is in the initial stage of explosive development, which brings a lot of challenges and problems.In this context, this paper focuses on the dynamic game relationship between Internet finance and traditional finance, and makes an empirical study on the volatility characteristics of Internet financial market.This study tries to clarify the current situation of Internet finance in China, explain the essence of Internet finance and its effect, and use econometrics, information economics, public economics, etc.The theory and model of finance and other related theories and models are used to analyze the mode and operation mechanism of Internet finance, and the fluctuation characteristics of Internet financial market are studied quantitatively. On the basis of this, feasible policy suggestions are put forward.In this paper, there are five chapters in structure, which mainly focus on three major problems: first, the theoretical analysis of the reform effect caused by Internet finance.The conclusion is as follows: Internet finance integrates the spirit of Internet into traditional finance, which infuses new vitality into financial development, Internet finance obscures the limits of traditional financial circles, and cross-border mixed financial products emerge endlessly.Internet finance forces the reform and transformation of traditional finance, accelerates the reform and development of macro finance, and reshapes the financial form of mobile internet finance.Second, the dynamic evolution game model of Internet finance and traditional finance is established.Through the model analysis, this paper mainly thinks that in the short run, the two sides can reduce the loss by choosing the competitive strategy; in the long run, they should choose the cooperative strategy to maximize the benefits.The third is the empirical analysis of the volatility of the Internet financial market.By establishing and comparing various GARCH models, the optimal model which is simple and accurate to describe the volatility characteristics of Internet financial market is selected.Through empirical analysis, it is concluded that the return rate of Internet financial index does not accord with the characteristics of normal distribution and has obvious ARCH effect, and the best fitting model is the t-distribution model.This paper puts forward some policy suggestions on how to promote the symbiotic development of Internet finance and traditional finance.That is, to make clear the long-term strategic choice for win-win cooperation between the two sides, to absorb each other, to complement each other, to enhance the total income of the symbiotic system between the two sides, to work together to build a new credit information system based on big data technology, and to reduce the cost of information communication for development.To establish a good credit environment; to speed up the establishment of a new regulatory system capable of adapting to Internet finance, to reform the existing regulatory framework, and to standardize the Internet financial market; and to resolutely crack down on "fake Internet finance" such as Internet financial fraud.Optimize the financial ecological environment of healthy interaction between the two sides.
【学位授予单位】：南昌大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F724.6;F832;F224.32

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