出口国偏好和进口多元化下的天然气进口国博弈
发布时间:2018-04-18 08:04
本文选题:天然气进口 + 出口国偏好 ; 参考:《系统管理学报》2017年03期
【摘要】:兼顾经济利益和能源供应安全是天然气进口国的重要考量。运用微分对策理论,构建了受出口国偏好和进口多元化程度影响的天然气进口国博弈模型,并获得了模型的最优解。研究表明,天然气进口国从某一个出口国的最优进口量与进口国愿意支付的最高价格和出口国的绝对偏好程度正相关。当天然气进口国的进口多元化程度高时,其达到初始预期进口需求总量的时间变短,有利于保障能源供应安全。但是天然气进口国的消费者剩余与本国进口多元化程度负相关,与其他竞争进口国的进口多元化程度正相关,且出口国相对偏好越低,该变化的幅度越大。因此,从获得经济利益的角度看,进口多元化程度并不是越高越好,研究发现,存在一个兼顾经济利益和能源供应安全的"进口多元化程度"。
[Abstract]:Balancing economic interests and energy supply security is an important consideration for natural gas importing countries.By using differential game theory, the game model of natural gas importing country affected by exporting country's preference and import diversification degree is constructed, and the optimal solution of the model is obtained.The study shows that the optimal import volume of natural gas importing countries from one exporter is positively related to the maximum price that the importing country is willing to pay and the absolute preference of the exporting country.When the import diversification degree of natural gas importing country is high, the time to reach the initial expected import demand becomes shorter, which is helpful to ensure the security of energy supply.However, the consumer surplus in natural gas importing countries is negatively correlated with the degree of import diversification, and is positively correlated with the degree of import diversification in other competitive importing countries, and the lower the relative preference of the exporting countries, the greater the range of this change.Therefore, from the point of view of obtaining economic benefits, the degree of import diversification is not the higher the better. The study finds that there exists a "degree of import diversification" which takes account of economic interests and energy supply security.
【作者单位】: 重庆大学经济与工商管理学院;重庆科技学院数理学院;
【基金】:国家自然科学基金资助项目(71133007,71071172) 国家社会科学基金资助项目(16BGL136) 重庆市教委人文社会科学研究资助项目(14SK006)
【分类号】:F224.32;F416.22;F746
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本文编号:1767498
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