基于VAR模型分析西安市人口结构变化对商品住宅价格的影响研究

发布时间：2018-04-25 18:41

本文选题：人口结构 + 住宅价格　；参考：《西安建筑科技大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：住宅问题与居民的生活密切相关,其价格的变动不单会影响居民的生活水平,并且会对整个社会经济的健康发展具有极为深刻的影响。随着我国房地产商品化和社会化的逐步加深,城市住宅价格呈现不断上涨的趋势。除了社会经济发展、国家政策转变以及人们思想观念改变等因素的影响外,近年来我国人口结构的变化也是住宅价格变动的重要影响因素。本课题根据2004~2015年人口结构数据和住宅价格数据,应用VAR模型系统地分析了12年来西安市人口结构和住宅价格变化之间的关系。在收集2004~2015年间西安市人口结构数据和住宅价格原始数据基础上,本文首先建立了基于人口年龄结构、户均家庭规模、迁移结构变化、性别结构、教育结构、就业结构以及城乡结构变化对西安市住宅价格影响的VAR模型,进而采用单位根平稳性检验、协整检验、格兰杰(Granger)因果检验等检验方法对所建模型进行了脉冲响应函数分析及方差解析。本文的实证研究结果表明:人口年龄的结构变化对西安市住宅价格具有显著影响;人口年龄结构、户均家庭规模和人口迁移结构变化均具有长期影响。随着西安市人口老龄化的加剧和现行的二胎政策,西安市15~64岁年龄段人口比重将进一步降低,西安市将面临着住宅价格上涨动力不足的问题。在西安市迁入人口占比逐渐下降、总人口数量增加和户均家庭规模减小的情况下,西安市住宅价格从长期来看可能会继续上涨,但涨幅不大。尽管西安市住宅价格的短期变化主要受本身经济结构发展的影响,但人口结构变化对西安市住宅价格长期影响将会逐渐显现。依据课题的研究成果,本文认为在西安市未来发展过程中,应逐步采取开放的人口政策保持该地区人口结构的相对稳定性,以缓解住宅价格变化带来的市场压力。
[Abstract]:The housing problem is closely related to the residents' life, and the change of its price will not only affect the living standard of the residents, but also have a profound impact on the healthy development of the whole society and economy. With the deepening of commercialization and socialization of real estate in China, the price of urban housing is rising. In addition to the influence of social and economic development, the change of national policy and the change of people's idea, the change of population structure is also the important factor of the change of housing price in recent years. Based on the population structure data and housing price data from 2004 to 2015, the relationship between population structure and housing price changes in Xi'an over the past 12 years is systematically analyzed by using VAR model. Based on the data of population structure and housing price in Xi'an between 2004 and 2015, this paper first establishes the population age structure, the average household size, the migration structure change, the gender structure, the education structure. The VAR model of the influence of employment structure and the change of urban and rural structure on the housing price in Xi'an city, and then adopt the unit root stability test and cointegration test. Granger causality test and other test methods are used to analyze the impulse response function and variance of the model. The empirical results show that: the structural change of population age has a significant impact on housing prices in Xi'an, and the change of population age structure, average household size and population migration structure all have a long-term impact. With the aggravation of population aging and the current two-child policy in Xi'an, the proportion of population aged 15 to 64 in Xi'an will be further reduced, and Xi'an will be faced with the problem of insufficient power to rise in housing prices. Housing prices in Xi'an are likely to continue to rise in the long term, but not much, as the proportion of residents in Xi'an declines, the total population increases and household size shrinks. Although the short-term change of housing price in Xi'an is mainly affected by the development of its own economic structure, the long-term effect of the change of population structure on housing price in Xi'an will gradually appear. According to the research results, this paper holds that in the future development of Xi'an City, the open population policy should be adopted step by step to maintain the relative stability of the population structure in this area, so as to alleviate the market pressure caused by the change of housing price.
【学位授予单位】：西安建筑科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：C924.2;F299.23;F224

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