时间序列预测法在我国人口预测中的比较研究

发布时间：2018-05-15 15:54

本文选题：ARIMA(p + d　；参考：《湘潭大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：本文就我国人口为研究对象,以1949年至2015年我国年末总人口为例,用时间序列分析方法和统计学软件Eviews建立ARIMA模型,并预测未来几年的人口总数量。同样对1995年至2016年我国65岁以上老年人口比例用Eviews建立ARIMA(p,d,q)模型,再预测未来几年的65岁以上老年人口的比例,最后用一样的方法预测新生儿出生率。然后对研究结果进行了分析,反映出我国人口数量大、老龄化问题严重和国民生育率超低,我国既要采取有效的措施控制过快的人口增长率,又要使各个年龄结构分布合理,为此我提出了一些建议。
[Abstract]:Taking the total population of China from 1949 to 2015 as an example, the ARIMA model is established by using the time series analysis method and the statistical software Eviews, and the total population in the next few years is predicted. From 1995 to 2016, the Eviews model was established for the proportion of the aged population over 65 years old in China, and then the proportion of the aged population over 65 years in the next few years was predicted. Finally, the birth rate of newborns was predicted by the same method. Then the research results are analyzed, which shows that the population is large, the aging problem is serious and the national fertility rate is extremely low. China should take effective measures to control the excessive population growth rate and make the distribution of each age structure reasonable. To this end, I put forward some suggestions.
【学位授予单位】：湘潭大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：C924.2;O21

【参考文献】