要素成本上升背景下我国外贸的中长期趋势分析

发布时间：2018-05-18 04:14

  本文选题：广义要素成本上涨 + 马尔可夫链　； 参考：《数理统计与管理》2017年03期

【摘要】：本文在近年来广义要素成本上涨的背景下,利用HS98章商品2010-2014年的月度数据,对我国出口商品的国际市场竞争力进行中长期动态预测。文中选取显示性比较优势指数(RCA)作为表征贸易商品竞争力的度量指标,结合要素成本上涨的背景,利用马尔可夫链动态模型,对我国外贸的中长期趋势进行预测。研究发现:短期内在广义要素成本上升的背景下,第一产业的大部分商品及第二产业中纺织原料及纺织品受到较大冲击;从长期趋势来看,第一产业维持了稳定的比较优势,而对于第二产业其影响效应分化,纺织原料及纺织品、轻工业产品、陶瓷及玻璃制品的国际竞争优势呈明显下跌趋势,而矿产品、普通和精密机械、木制品和纸制品的国际市场竞争力并无明显变化,第二产业受到的长期影响要比短期更显著。
[Abstract]:Under the background of the rise of generalized factor cost in recent years, this paper makes a long-term dynamic prediction of the international market competitiveness of China's export commodities by using the monthly data from 2010-2014 of HS98 chapter. In this paper, the index of comparative advantage (RCA) is chosen as the index to measure the competitiveness of trade commodities, and the dynamic model of Markov chain is used to predict the long-term trend of China's foreign trade. It is found that in the short term, most of the commodities in the primary industry and textile raw materials and textiles in the secondary industry have been greatly impacted under the background of rising broad factor costs, and the first industry has maintained a stable comparative advantage in view of the long-term trend. For the secondary industry, the international competitive advantage of textile raw materials and textiles, light industrial products, ceramics and glass products showed a marked decline, while mineral products, ordinary and precision machinery, There is no obvious change in the competitiveness of wood and paper products in the international market, and the long-term impact on the secondary industry is more significant than in the short term.
【作者单位】： 厦门大学经济学院国际经济与贸易系;厦门大学两岸和平发展协同创新中心;北京大学经济学院国际经济与贸易系;香港中文大学经济系;
【基金】：国家社科基金青年项目的阶段性成果(15CJL052) 教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目(13JZD010),教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目(16JJD790036)的资助
【分类号】：O211.62
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本文编号：1904320