几类具有潜伏期的流行病的控制策略研究

发布时间：2018-06-18 01:21

本文选题：流行病动力学模型 + 抗病毒药物　；参考：《电子科技大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：在人类发展史中,流行病历来都是人类健康的重大威胁。当前,以高致病率和高致死率著称的流感仍然威胁着人类的生命。因此,如何预防和控制流感成为人类面对流感首要考虑的问题。然而,由于对流行病传播的研究不可依赖于实验的方法,只有靠理论分析和模拟仿真进行。数学模型就是一种重要的理论方法。本文利用流行病动力学传播模型,研究了几类控制具有潜伏期流感的措施效果。本文的主要研究内容如下:1.基于流行病动力学的仓室模型SEI_TI_NR,针对具有潜伏期的流感,研究了利用抗病毒药物治疗有症状染病者的措施(该措施由Arinaminpathy N等人提出,抗病毒药物主要用于控制流感,而不用于预防)控制流感传播的效果。考虑到实际中抗病毒药物储存量可能存在不足的情况,鉴于此,本文研究了在抗病毒药物存储量有限和分发率受到制约的条件下,人均药物剂量m和药物覆盖率之间的关系;给出了利用抗病毒药物治疗的措施的总成本的表达式,并研究了不同药物覆盖率α对流感控制效果、疾控过程总成本的影响。数值模拟结果表明,当抗病毒药物覆盖率α＞68%时,人均药物剂量达到5剂以上即可成功控制流行病的爆发。此外,随着药物覆盖率α的增大,有症状患者的人数大幅减少,疾控成本也随之减少。因此,在流行病爆发的早期要适当增大人均药物剂量,药物覆盖率,不仅可以很好地控制流感传播过程,也可以避免不必要的资源浪费。2.基于流行病动力学仓室模型SEI_QI_NAR下,考虑利用抗病毒药物治疗、预防措施结合隔离有症状患者措施下具有潜伏期流行病传播的效果。在模型中考虑了潜伏期患者和无症状患者在地区之间流动性,着重考虑了有症状患者隔离比率对控制流感传播的效果。数值模拟结果表明:当面对一种新型流行病时,抗病毒药物治疗效果不是很显著时,结合隔离措施可有效地控制流感传播,且仅需每天隔离少量有症状患者。本文还推导出了抗病毒药物治疗、预防和隔离措施下,所需治疗、隔离的患者数量以及总的控制成本的表达式。同时,还给出了成功控制流感传播下,需要治疗、隔离的患者数量和控制总成本的近似表达式。数值模拟指出:在一定的误差容限内,控制过程下所需治疗、隔离的患者数量和控制总成本的真实值和近似值相等。此外,还表明在控制流感过程中,应该适当使用抗病毒药物剂量,而要适当增大隔离比率,这样可以很好的控制流感的传播,也可以减少控制成本的花费。
[Abstract]:In the history of human development, epidemic disease has always been a major threat to human health. Currently, influenza, known for its high morbidity and mortality, still threatens human life. Therefore, how to prevent and control influenza has become the most important problem to be considered. However, the study of epidemic transmission can not rely on experimental methods, but only by theoretical analysis and simulation. Mathematical model is an important theoretical method. In this paper, the effectiveness of several measures to control influenza with latent period is studied by using epidemic dynamics transmission model. The main contents of this paper are as follows: 1. Based on the epidemiological dynamics of the storeroom model SEISTITINRs, this paper studies the use of antiviral drugs to treat patients with symptomatic infections (proposed by Arinaminpathy N et al.) for influenza with latent period. The antiviral drugs are mainly used to control influenza. Not for prevention) the effect of controlling the spread of influenza. In view of the fact that the actual storage of antiviral drugs may be insufficient, this paper studies the relationship between drug dose m per capita and drug coverage under the condition of limited storage and limited distribution rate of antiviral drugs. The expression of the total cost of antiviral therapy is given, and the effects of different drug coverage 伪 on the influenza control and the total cost of disease control are studied. The numerical simulation results show that when the coverage of antiviral drugs 伪 > 68, the drug dose per person can successfully control the outbreak of the epidemic by more than 5 doses. In addition, with the increase of drug coverage, the number of symptomatic patients decreased significantly, and the cost of disease control decreased. Therefore, in the early stage of the epidemic, appropriate increase of drug dose per capita, drug coverage, not only good control of influenza transmission process, but also to avoid unnecessary waste of resources. Based on the epidemic dynamics chamber model SEIQINAR, the use of antiviral drugs and preventive measures combined with the isolation of symptomatic patients has the effect of latent epidemic transmission under the condition of SEIQINAR. The fluidity of latent and asymptomatic patients between regions was considered in the model, and the effect of isolation ratio of symptomatic patients on the control of influenza transmission was emphasized. The numerical simulation results show that when the efficacy of antiviral drugs is not significant in the face of a new epidemic, the combination of isolation measures can effectively control the spread of influenza, and only a small number of symptomatic patients need to be isolated every day. The expressions for the treatment required, the number of patients isolated and the total cost of control under antiviral therapy, prevention and isolation are also derived. At the same time, the approximate expressions of the number of patients in need of treatment, the number of isolated patients and the total cost of controlling influenza transmission are given. Numerical simulation shows that the number of patients isolated and the true value and approximate value of the total cost of control are equal to the number of patients who need treatment during the control process within a certain error tolerance. In addition, it also shows that in the process of influenza control, the appropriate dosage of antiviral drugs should be used, and the isolation ratio should be increased appropriately, which can control the spread of influenza and reduce the cost of control.
【学位授予单位】：电子科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：O175

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