复合电厂生态系统风险评价及预警系统研究

发布时间：2018-07-26 19:58

【摘要】：复合电厂生态系统风险评价和预警系统研究,是指针对长期以来燃煤火电厂在发电过程中不可避免的对外排放含有重金属的各种产物从而对电厂所在的区域的土壤生态系统造成生态风险威胁,进而对人类社会的经济、健康、可持续发展产生影响和威胁,提出并构建适合的评价预警方法和设计预警系统的研究。本文首先根据复杂系统和生态经济系统等理论,提出了复合电厂生态系的概念,介绍了该系统的主要组成架构,确立了复合电厂生态系统的具体子系统的组成分类:电厂燃烧系统-土壤生态系统-社会经济系统。三个子系统分别作为复合生态系统风险的生产者,消费者和分解者。其次,针对生产者生产风险的不确定性和监测数据局限性,以及生态系统风险固有的隐蔽性和复杂性,提出并建立了基于SS-TFN的Fuzzy概率和I-NEA信息网络模型耦合的生态风险评价模型。通过SS-TFN的Fuzzy概率法,每一种生态系统组分得到k个等级的干扰发生概率,进而得到k种模糊初始风险值,通过网络控制分布关系NCA,得到k*n条间接风险传递路径,比一般的网络评价模型多出(k-1)*n条,最终得到k*n个整合生态风险结果。耦合模糊生态风险评价方法,得到基于阈值的预警模型。选取模型库集成法将评价预警模型和GIS系统集成法,提出了评价预警系统的设计思路并给出了可能的系统效果图。结合案例研究可以得出,生态风险的评价研究要以系统为基础研究环境,同时考虑风险的产生、传递和去向。生态风险不仅是直接风险,还包括间接风险,要综合考虑整合风险。此外,采用模型库集成法更加贴近无缝耦合式,更有利于评价预警系统的运行实现。有利于及时采取管理控制措施,保证复合电厂生态系统中电厂的稳定运行,生态系统的稳态生存以及社会经济的可持续发展。
[Abstract]:Study on ecosystem risk Assessment and early warning system of compound Power Plant, It refers to the inevitable external discharge of various products containing heavy metals in the power generation process of coal-fired thermal power plants for a long time, thus posing an ecological risk threat to the soil ecosystem of the region where the power plants are located, and then to the economy of human society. Health and sustainable development have an impact and threat. Research on appropriate evaluation and early warning methods and design of early warning system is put forward and constructed. Based on the theory of complex system and eco-economic system, the concept of complex power plant ecosystem is put forward in this paper, and the main structure of the system is introduced. The compositional classification of specific subsystems of complex power plant ecosystem was established: power plant combustion system-soil ecosystem and socio-economic system. The three subsystems act as producers, consumers and decomposers of complex ecosystem risks. Secondly, in view of the uncertainty of producer production risks and the limitations of monitoring data, as well as the inherent concealment and complexity of ecosystem risks, An ecological risk assessment model based on Fuzzy probability and I-NEA information network model based on SS-TFN is proposed and established. By using the Fuzzy probability method of SS-TFN, the probability of occurrence of k levels of disturbance is obtained for each ecosystem component, and then k kinds of fuzzy initial risk values are obtained. Through the network control distribution relation, the indirect risk transfer paths are obtained. Compared with the general network evaluation model, there are more (k-1) and (k-1) n integrated ecological risk results. Coupling fuzzy ecological risk assessment method, a threshold-based early warning model is obtained. The model base integration method is selected to evaluate the early warning model and the GIS system integration method. The design idea of the evaluation and early warning system is put forward and the possible system effect diagram is given. Combined with the case study, it can be concluded that the study of ecological risk evaluation should be based on the systematic research environment, and consider the generation, transmission and destination of the risk at the same time. Ecological risk is not only direct risk, but also indirect risk. In addition, the model base integration method is more close to the seamless coupling, which is more conducive to the evaluation of the implementation of the early warning system. It is propitious to take management and control measures in time to ensure the stable operation of power plant in the ecosystem of composite power plant, the steady survival of ecosystem and the sustainable development of social economy.
【学位授予单位】：华北电力大学(北京)
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：X826;F426.61;F224

【参考文献】