基于演化博弈的海上丝绸之路合作稳定性分析

发布时间：2018-11-10 09:55

【摘要】：中国倡导共建21世纪海上丝绸之路面临诸多外部不确定因素。为了判别海上丝绸之路合作的演化方向及其实现条件,构建三元策略博弈支付矩阵,以改进复制动态方程模拟有限理性条件下合作的博弈过程,分析博弈均衡点稳定性及其参数条件。模型数值仿真验证了动态方程分析结果,根据仿真图直观给出中方策略建议:大力推进合作示范项目,突破初始不合作均衡;短期内补贴吸引合作,以达成长期公平互利局面;不追求局部利益最大化,容许对方项目收益高于已方;根据博弈地位相对优势,选择有利合作对象与领域;寻找彼此战略利益交汇点,确保长期协同合作绩效;关注国际环境扰动,抓住机遇引导有利演化方向。
[Abstract]:China's advocacy of the 21 st century maritime Silk Road faces many external uncertainties. In order to distinguish the evolution direction and realization conditions of maritime Silk Road cooperation, the payment matrix of ternary strategy game is constructed to improve the replicating dynamic equation to simulate the game process of cooperation under the condition of finite rationality. The stability of equilibrium point and its parameter conditions are analyzed. The model numerical simulation verifies the result of dynamic equation analysis, according to the simulation diagram, gives the Chinese strategy suggestion: vigorously promote the cooperative demonstration project, break through the initial non-cooperative equilibrium, attract the cooperation in the short term, so as to achieve the long-term fair and mutually beneficial situation; It does not pursue the maximization of local interests, allows the other side to benefit more than the other side; according to the relative advantages of the game position, it selects the favorable cooperation object and field, finds the intersection of each other's strategic interests, and ensures the long-term cooperative performance. Attention to international environmental disturbances, seize the opportunity to guide the beneficial direction of evolution.
【作者单位】：上海理工大学管理学院;江苏科技大学张家港校区;
【基金】：上海市一流学科建设项目(S1201YLXK) 江苏高等教育科学研究“十三五”规划课题(16YB064)
【分类号】：F114.46;F224.32

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