中国高血压患者并发脑卒中风险的Rothman-Keller模型研究
发布时间：2019-03-05 15:06
【摘要】：目的建立高血压患者并发脑卒中的风险评估模型。方法通过Meta分析的方法获得高血压患者并发脑卒中的危险因素及相应的合并风险值,构建Rothman-Keller模型的危险评分表,再通过二项分布函数方法生成一组随机数据集,确定风险评估等级划分界值,并采用实际数据验证。结果共纳入31篇文献,进入Rothman-Keller模型的因素包括收缩压、舒张压、高密度脂蛋白胆固醇、低密度脂蛋白胆固醇、同型半胱氨酸、高尿酸血症、空腹血糖受损/糖尿病、脑卒中家族史、颈动脉斑块、是否规律服药、体育锻炼、吸烟。实际人群发病情况与模型预测结果的ROC曲线下面积及95%CI为0.784(0.718,0.849),P0.001。结论本模型的预测效果较好,可以应用于高血压患者并发脑卒中的一级预防,有助于降低高血压患者并发脑卒中的风险。
[Abstract]:Objective to establish a risk assessment model for cerebral apoplexy in patients with hypertension. Methods the risk factors and associated risk values of stroke in hypertensive patients were obtained by Meta analysis. The risk score table of Rothman-Keller model was constructed, and then a set of random data sets was generated by binomial distribution function method. The boundary value of risk assessment level is determined and verified by actual data. Results the factors involved in the Rothman-Keller model included systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure, high density lipoprotein cholesterol, low density lipoprotein cholesterol, homocysteine, hyperuricemia, impaired fasting blood glucose / diabetes mellitus. Stroke family history, carotid plaque, regular medication, physical exercise, smoking. The area under ROC curve and 95%CI were 0.784 (0.718, 0.849), P0.001.The area under the curve of the actual population and the predicted results of the model were 0.784 (0.718, 0.849). Conclusion the prediction effect of this model is good, it can be used in primary prevention of hypertensive patients with cerebral apoplexy, and it is helpful to reduce the risk of stroke in hypertensive patients.
【作者单位】： 第三军医大学军事预防医学院卫生统计学教研室;第三军医大学大坪医院野战外科研究所第九研究室;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金面上项目(81473068,81202286)~~
【分类号】：O213;R544.1;R743.3
，
本文编号：2435035
[Abstract]:Objective to establish a risk assessment model for cerebral apoplexy in patients with hypertension. Methods the risk factors and associated risk values of stroke in hypertensive patients were obtained by Meta analysis. The risk score table of Rothman-Keller model was constructed, and then a set of random data sets was generated by binomial distribution function method. The boundary value of risk assessment level is determined and verified by actual data. Results the factors involved in the Rothman-Keller model included systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure, high density lipoprotein cholesterol, low density lipoprotein cholesterol, homocysteine, hyperuricemia, impaired fasting blood glucose / diabetes mellitus. Stroke family history, carotid plaque, regular medication, physical exercise, smoking. The area under ROC curve and 95%CI were 0.784 (0.718, 0.849), P0.001.The area under the curve of the actual population and the predicted results of the model were 0.784 (0.718, 0.849). Conclusion the prediction effect of this model is good, it can be used in primary prevention of hypertensive patients with cerebral apoplexy, and it is helpful to reduce the risk of stroke in hypertensive patients.
【作者单位】： 第三军医大学军事预防医学院卫生统计学教研室;第三军医大学大坪医院野战外科研究所第九研究室;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金面上项目(81473068,81202286)~~
【分类号】：O213;R544.1;R743.3
，
本文编号：2435035
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