化解库存量对需求产能效率准确预测仿真

发布时间：2019-08-14 11:49

【摘要】：通过化解库存量对需求产能进行预测,能够有效解决我国产业发展中的产能过剩的问题。对需求产能的预测,需要给出库存消化均衡因子,得到各个去库存区域相似性矩阵,完成对产能需求的预测。传统方法先获取库存预测指标权重,得到需求产能预测指标的区域相似性矩阵,但由于得到的矩阵参数混乱,导致预测精度低。提出基于加权偏离度统计的化解库存量的需求产能预测。依据去库存的约束的不同,结合调控对投机性需求的经验合理选择变量的权重,计算变量的加权偏离度,得到去库存的性能预测指标,提取表征去库存状态的特征向量,给出去库存区域内库存消化均衡因子,组建评价各个去库存区域相似性矩阵,完成需求产能的预测。仿真证明,选用方法预测精度和稳定性较高,可以为发展地方经济提供有力的依据。
[Abstract]:By resolving the inventory to predict the demand capacity, we can effectively solve the problem of overcapacity in the industrial development of our country. For the prediction of demand capacity, it is necessary to give the equilibrium factor of inventory digestion, obtain the similarity matrix of each de-inventory area, and complete the prediction of capacity demand. The traditional method first obtains the weight of inventory forecasting index and obtains the regional similarity matrix of demand capacity forecasting index, but because of the confusion of the obtained matrix parameters, the prediction accuracy is low. A demand capacity forecast based on weighted deviation statistics is proposed to solve the inventory. According to the different constraints of de-inventory, combined with the experience of regulating and controlling speculative demand, the weight of variables is reasonably selected, the weighted deviation degree of variables is calculated, the performance prediction index of de-inventory is obtained, the characteristic vector that represents the state of de-inventory is extracted, the inventory digestion equilibrium factor in inventory area is given, the similarity matrix for evaluating each de-inventory area is established, and the prediction of demand capacity is completed. The simulation results show that the prediction accuracy and stability of the selected method are high, which can provide a powerful basis for the development of local economy.
【作者单位】：江西科技师范大学数字化社会与地方文化发展中心;
【基金】：2014年江西省艺术科学规划项目(YG2014065)
【分类号】：O227

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