荷兰赌论证的含义
发布时间：2018-10-30 10:13
【摘要】：经典荷兰赌论证表明:如果当事人的不确定信念度赋值不满足概率论公理,那么他在某一赌局中总是输。然而该论断并没有揭示荷兰赌的含义。文章基于拉姆齐的概念和公理,首先论证存在一个效用函数,它合理地表达了价值的定性概念,然后论证信念度的性质。这些概念的性质表明,所谓不确定信念系统的一致性是指价值与信念度的赋值和偏好的序关系是一致的。荷兰赌论证意味着,在当事人的不确定信念系统中,有关定性和定量概念之间没有协调性:其价值和信念度赋值是混乱的,并导致非理性决策。在这种情形下,当事人不确定信念系统的一致性将遭到破坏。由此可见,通过阐明荷兰赌论证的含义,我们可以为归纳和决策做出辩护。
[Abstract]:The classical Dutch gambling argument shows that if the party's uncertain belief value is not satisfied with the probability axiom, then he always loses in a certain bet. However, this argument does not reveal the meaning of Dutch gambling. Based on Ramsay's concept and axiom, this paper first proves the existence of a utility function, which reasonably expresses the qualitative concept of value, and then proves the nature of belief degree. The properties of these concepts show that the consistency of the so-called uncertain belief system refers to the consistency of the order of values and preferences of belief degrees. Dutch gambling means that there is no harmony between qualitative and quantitative concepts in the uncertain belief system of the parties: the assignment of values and belief degrees is chaotic and leads to irrational decision-making. In this case, the consistency of the party's uncertain belief system will be undermined. Thus, by clarifying the meaning of Dutch gambling argument, we can defend induction and decision-making.
【作者单位】： 中山大学逻辑与认知研究所哲学系
【基金】：教育部人文社会科学研究基地重大项目《归纳逻辑及其应用》(项目批准号05JJD720.40001)
【分类号】：B812
本文编号：2299710
[Abstract]:The classical Dutch gambling argument shows that if the party's uncertain belief value is not satisfied with the probability axiom, then he always loses in a certain bet. However, this argument does not reveal the meaning of Dutch gambling. Based on Ramsay's concept and axiom, this paper first proves the existence of a utility function, which reasonably expresses the qualitative concept of value, and then proves the nature of belief degree. The properties of these concepts show that the consistency of the so-called uncertain belief system refers to the consistency of the order of values and preferences of belief degrees. Dutch gambling means that there is no harmony between qualitative and quantitative concepts in the uncertain belief system of the parties: the assignment of values and belief degrees is chaotic and leads to irrational decision-making. In this case, the consistency of the party's uncertain belief system will be undermined. Thus, by clarifying the meaning of Dutch gambling argument, we can defend induction and decision-making.
【作者单位】： 中山大学逻辑与认知研究所哲学系
【基金】：教育部人文社会科学研究基地重大项目《归纳逻辑及其应用》(项目批准号05JJD720.40001)
【分类号】：B812
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1 熊卫;;荷兰赌论证的含义[J];中山大学学报(社会科学版);2006年05期
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