浙江省基本养老保险替代率适度性研究

发布时间：2018-03-09 14:30

本文选题：养老保险　切入点：替代率　出处：《浙江财经大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：养老保险替代率是考察养老保险制度的重要指标之一,它关系着每一位退休老年人晚年生活质量和社会负担能力。本文通过从基本养老保险基金收支平衡和个人效用最优化两个方面定量推定适度水平,并与基本养老保险替代率现实水平进行对比研究,以反映浙江省现行养老保险的保障情况,考察浙江省基本养老保险平均替代率适度性。社会保障制度的建立是人类社会文明进步的里程碑。社会养老保险是社会保险制度,乃至整个社会保障制度的核心。它的建立保障了社会成员在老年退出社会劳动领域之后获得相应固定的养老金收入和维持退休基本生活的需要。尤其在当今中国老龄化趋势不断加深的背景下,现行的养老保险制度运行的完备与否,对于中国的稳定发展和和平崛起具有至关重要的作用。根据中国前瞻产业研究院2015年2月发布的《2015-2020年中国老年健康服务行业发展前景与投资机会分析报告》,截止2014年底,中国60周岁以上人口已经达到2.12亿,占总人口数的15.5%。报告预测2015-2020年将是中国人口老龄化高速增长期,人口老龄化规模呈现出“总量扩张、增量提速”的趋势。预计2020年,中国60周岁以上人口将达到2.5亿,2025年将达到3亿,成为超老年型国家。2015年全国社会保险基金预算显示,剔除中央财政补贴,全国养老保险基金亏空超过3000亿元,比2014年的1563亿元显著扩大,多个地方政府养老保险基金运行入不敷出。人口老龄化趋势加剧给全国养老保险基金运行带来了巨大压力,社会养老保险制度改革已是迫在眉睫。本文第一章,介绍了研究背景、研究意义、研究内容和整体框架。第二章,系统梳理和回顾国内外养老保险替代率研究文献。第三章,对基本养老保险替代率相关概念和指标进行外延界定和比较研究,并确定平均替代率作为研究核心。第四章,从个人效用水平角度,运用基于延期退休视角的跨期世代交叠模型推定浙江省基本养老保险替代率最优路径,得到浙江省社会统筹账户和个人账户最优替代率区间。再结合保险精算平衡模型推定的结果,确定适度水平区间为[37.17%,45%]。第五章,从基本养老保险基金收支平衡角度,基于人口模型,建立浙江省基本养老保险基金收支平衡模型,确定适度水平为36.61%。第六章,考察了浙江省基本养老保险平均替代率现实水平区间为[35%,40%]。比较研究现实水平和适度水平,结论为浙江省基本养老保险平均替代率现实水平总体不是适度水平,应适当提高养老金增幅和延迟退休。
[Abstract]:The replacement rate of old-age insurance is one of the important indicators to investigate the old-age insurance system. It is related to the quality of life and social affordability of every retired old man in his later years. This paper quantitatively deduces the appropriate level from two aspects: the balance of income and expenditure of the basic pension insurance fund and the optimization of individual utility. And compared with the actual level of the replacement rate of basic old-age insurance, to reflect the current endowment insurance in Zhejiang Province, The average replacement rate of basic old-age insurance in Zhejiang Province is moderate. The establishment of social security system is a milestone in the progress of human civilization. Even the core of the whole social security system. Its establishment has guaranteed the social members to obtain the corresponding fixed pension income and the need to maintain the retirement basic life after the old people withdraw from the social labor field. Against the backdrop of a growing trend of ageing, Whether the current old-age insurance system is complete or not, It is of vital importance to the stable development and peaceful rise of China. According to the report on the prospects and Investment opportunities of China's Geriatric Health Service Industry for 2015-2020, issued on February 2015 by the China prospective Industrial Research Institute, as of end of 2014, China's population over 60 years old has reached 212 million, accounting for 15.50.The report predicts that 2015-2020 will be a period of rapid growth in China's population aging, with the population aging scale showing a trend of "total expansion, incremental acceleration". It is expected that in 2020, China's population over 60 will reach 250 million, and in 2025 it will reach 300 million, making it a super-old country. In 2015, the budget of the National Social Insurance Fund showed that, excluding the central financial subsidy, the national pension insurance fund was in deficit of more than 300 billion yuan. Compared with the 156.3 billion yuan in 2014, many local government pension insurance funds are running more than they can make ends meet. The aging trend of the population has brought tremendous pressure to the operation of the national pension insurance funds. It is urgent to reform the social endowment insurance system. The first chapter introduces the background, significance, content and overall framework of the research. Chapter two systematically combs and reviews the research literature of the replacement rate of the endowment insurance at home and abroad. This paper defines and compares the related concepts and indicators of the replacement rate of basic old-age insurance, and determines that the average replacement rate is the core of the study. Chapter 4th, from the perspective of individual utility level, The optimal path of replacement rate of basic old-age insurance in Zhejiang Province is deduced by using the intertemporal intergenerational overlap model based on the perspective of deferred retirement. The optimal substitution rate interval of social balance account and individual account in Zhejiang Province is obtained. Combined with the result of insurance actuarial balance model, the appropriate level range is determined to be [37.17%]. Chapter 5th, from the angle of income and expenditure balance of basic pension insurance fund, Based on the population model, this paper establishes the balance model of the basic old-age insurance fund in Zhejiang Province, and determines that the appropriate level is 36.610.Chapter 6th, The average replacement rate of basic old-age insurance in Zhejiang Province is studied in this paper. The average replacement rate of basic old-age insurance in Zhejiang Province is [35 / 40%]. It is concluded that the realistic level of average replacement rate of basic old-age insurance in Zhejiang Province is not moderate in general. Pension increases and delays in retirement should be appropriately increased.
【学位授予单位】：浙江财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F842.67

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