新常态背景下全国城镇居民消费结构的综合评价分析

发布时间：2018-03-12 22:03

本文选题：新常态　切入点：城镇居民消费　出处：《吉林财经大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：伴随着我国市场经济改革的进一步深化,经济增长对于投资和出口过度依赖的问题已越发凸显。2000年以后,对经济增长起着主要推动作用的三驾马车中,消费对于经济增长的贡献率一直在低位徘徊。2014年中国经济正式步入新常态,在这样一个大背景下,乏力的消费已经严重制约了中国经济的增长,如何扩大内需成为中国正面临的一大难题。党的十七大明确指出:“促进经济增长由主要依靠投资、出口拉动向依靠消费、投资、出口协调拉动转变。”政府和国家将扩大消费提升到了战略层面,党和政府今后会将工作重心放在如何引导城镇居民合理地进行消费和怎样才能深度挖掘城镇居民的消费潜力上来。虽然党中央和国务院对于增加城镇居民的收入水平和提升城镇居民消费极其重视,并且城镇居民消费市场也有广阔的前景,但是现状却不容乐观。城镇居民消费不足问题凸显,甚至已经严重地影响到国家扩大内需的决策,因此我们必须对城镇居民消费水平进行深层次的研究。本文采用了静态分析和实证分析相结合的方法进行研究。首先介绍了中国经济新常态的背景,然后总结并简单阐述了国内和国外的关于居民消费的一些相关理论。之后介绍了消费结构的基本内容以及中国经济新常态下面临的消费问题和消费不足的原因。本文认为不仅收入水平对城镇居民的消费行为产生影响,而且社会保障体系的完善与否和有效供给不足等因素都会对其产生影响。本文从时间数列进行分析,选取了全国2001年到2015年的城镇居民人均消费和人均GDP的数据,对其进行了协整分析和格兰杰因果检验得出的结论是居民消费与GDP之间存在着稳定的相互影响关系。在此基础上,用横截面数据进行分析,选取了2014年和2015年全国31个地区城镇居民消费结构的8个指标使用因子分析法提取了3个主成分,分别是生活必备及发展享受因子、健康装扮因子和居住消费因子,最后得到这两年的城镇居民消费结构的因子得分公式,利用该模型对2014年和2015年全国31个地区的综合得分进行排名并进行了对比。分析得出东部等发达地区经济已经进入了新常态,消费的扩张速度有所放缓;而中西部地区目前经济正在进入新常态,其消费的增长势头仍旧比较强劲。各地区在3个因子上的消费差也比较大。最后本文提出了一些刺激国内消费的政策,主要包括完善社会保障体系、加快供给侧结构性改革和根据地区情况实施消费政策等。
[Abstract]:Along with the further deepening of the market economy reform in our country, the problem of excessive dependence of economic growth on investment and exports has become more and more prominent. After 2000, in the troika, which plays a major role in promoting economic growth, The contribution rate of consumption to economic growth has been hovering at a low level. In 2014, China's economy formally entered the new normal, in such a big context, weak consumption has seriously restricted the growth of the Chinese economy. How to expand domestic demand has become a major problem that China is facing. The 17th CPC National Congress clearly pointed out: "promoting economic growth depends mainly on investment, export-led by relying on consumption and investment," "the government and the state have raised the expansion of consumption to a strategic level," he said. The party and government will focus their efforts on how to guide urban residents to spend reasonably and how to tap the potential of urban residents in depth, although the party Central Committee and the State Council will increase the income of urban residents. The level and promotion of urban residents' consumption are extremely important, There are also broad prospects for the consumption market of urban residents, but the present situation is not optimistic. The problem of insufficient consumption of urban residents has even seriously affected the decision of the state to expand domestic demand. Therefore, we must do a deep research on the consumption level of urban residents. This paper adopts the method of combining static analysis and empirical analysis. Firstly, it introduces the background of the new normal state of Chinese economy. Then it summarizes and briefly expounds some related theories about resident consumption both at home and abroad, and then introduces the basic content of consumption structure and the consumption problems and reasons of insufficient consumption in the new normal state of Chinese economy. This paper argues that not only the income level has an impact on the consumption behavior of urban residents, And whether the social security system is perfect or not and whether the effective supply is insufficient will have an impact on it. This paper analyzes the time series and selects the data of per capita consumption and per capita GDP of urban residents from 2001 to 2015. The conclusion of cointegration analysis and Granger causality test is that there is a stable interaction between resident consumption and GDP. In 2014 and 2015, 8 indexes of the consumption structure of urban residents in 31 regions of China were selected. Three principal components were extracted by factor analysis, which were essential to life and development and enjoyment, health dressing and living consumption. Finally, the factor score formula for the consumption structure of urban residents in the past two years is obtained. The model is used to rank and compare the comprehensive scores of 31 regions in China in 2014 and 2015. The analysis shows that the economy of the eastern developed regions has entered the new normal and the expansion rate of consumption has slowed down. While the central and western regions are now entering a new normal, the growth momentum of their consumption is still relatively strong. The difference in consumption among the three factors in each region is also relatively large. Finally, this paper puts forward some policies to stimulate domestic consumption. It mainly includes perfecting the social security system, speeding up the structural reform on the supply side and implementing the consumption policy according to the regional conditions.
【学位授予单位】：吉林财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F126.1

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