养老保险财务收支失衡情景下全国社会保障基金释放机制及适度规模研究

发布时间：2018-03-15 21:13

本文选题：全国社会保障基金　切入点：城镇职工基本养老保险　出处：《合肥工业大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：近年来,人口老龄化的急速发展给我国养老保险体系造成了前所未有的冲击。据《2016年养老金发展报告》显示,2015年所有省份的城镇职工基本养老保险基金支出的增速都在10%以上,其中有6个省份尽管有财政投入但养老金账户仍然收不抵支,当期结余为负。而对于城乡居民基本养老保险,绝大多数省份个人缴费基本在200元左右,缴费收入过低,收入与支出中财政所占比重高达70%。由此可见,城镇职工基本养老保险和城乡居民基本养老保险制度未来可持续性令人担忧,我国的社会保障事业在未来将面临严峻的挑战。2000年,国家为了应对未来人口老龄化高峰期的社会保障需要,建立了“全国社会保障基金”,作为国家重要的养老金战略储备。但目前学术界对于养老战略储备释放机制和适度规模等问题缺乏前瞻性的研究。而全国社保基金要储备多少规模,该如何释放基金使得储备金得到最大利用,是值得人们深入研究的课题。这对于提高全国社会保障基金抵御人口老龄化危机能力,促进养老保险事业可持续发展乃至社会的稳定都具有重要的意义。因此,本文运用系统动力学方法构建了全国社会保障基金弥补养老金缺口的系统动力学模型,模拟了2016-2065年城镇职工基本养老保险、城乡居民基本养老保险和全国社会保障基金的基本运行情况。仿真结果显示,未来我国基本养老保险整体将出现收支失衡的现象。养老金缺口将在2037年出现,养老金支付高峰期为2055-2065年。如果由全国社保基金弥补养老金的全部缺口,储备金2050年就会用完。本文前瞻性地提出几种可供参考的储备金释放机制,并通过动态仿真模拟不断反馈修正,探索不同释放机制下储备金持续有效运行的适度规模。研究表明,在全国社保基金保持目前投入和保值增值速度且整体沉淀资金最小的前提下,当缺口达到养老金支出的26%时储备金开始释放,释放期为2051-2058年,储备金释放前达到70万亿元较为适宜;如果储备金只在养老金缺口高峰期2055-2065年释放,储备金释放前达到90万亿元较为适宜;如果储备金每年承担42%的养老金缺口弥补责任,释放期为2037-2065年,储备金释放前达到18万亿元较为适宜。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the rapid development of the aging population has caused an unprecedented impact on the pension insurance system in China. According to the 2016 Pension Development report, the expenditure on basic pension insurance funds for urban workers in all provinces increased by more than 10% in 2015. In six of these provinces, despite the financial input, the pension account still receives no credit, and the balance of the current period is negative. For the basic old-age insurance for urban and rural residents, the majority of the provinces have a personal contribution of about 200 yuan, and the payment income is too low. This shows that the future sustainability of the basic old-age insurance for urban and rural workers and the basic old-age insurance system for urban and rural residents is worrisome, and the social security undertakings in China will face severe challenges in the future. In 2000, In order to cope with the needs of social security during the peak period of population aging in the future, The National Social Security Fund has been established as an important national pension strategic reserve. However, there is a lack of forward-looking research on the release mechanism and appropriate scale of the pension strategic reserve in academic circles. What is the size of the reserve, How to release the fund to maximize the use of the reserve fund is a subject worthy of further study. This will improve the ability of the National Social Security Fund to resist the crisis of the aging population. It is of great significance to promote the sustainable development of the endowment insurance and even the stability of the society. Therefore, the system dynamics model of the national social security fund to make up the pension gap is constructed by the method of system dynamics. The basic operation of basic old-age insurance for urban and rural residents, basic pension insurance for urban and rural residents and the national social security fund for 2016-2065 are simulated. In the future, China's basic old-age insurance as a whole will appear the phenomenon of income and expenditure imbalance. The pension gap will appear in 2037, and the peak period of pension payment will be 2055-2065. If the National Social Security Fund is to make up for the total gap of pension, The reserve will run out in 2050. This paper puts forward several kinds of reserve release mechanism which can be used for reference, and makes continuous feedback correction through dynamic simulation. The research shows that the NSSF maintains the current investment and maintains the increment speed and the overall precipitate the fund is the minimum premise under the different release mechanism the reserve fund continues to operate effectively the moderate scale, the research indicated that the national social security fund maintains the present investment and maintains the increment speed, When the gap reaches 26 percent of the pension expenditure, the reserve starts to be released, and the release period is 2051-2058. It is more appropriate to reach 70 trillion yuan before the reserve is released; if the reserve is released only at the peak of the pension gap 2055-2065, It is more appropriate to reach 90 trillion yuan before the reserve is released; if the reserve takes on 42% annual pension gap to make up for the liability, the release period is 2037-2065 years, and 18 trillion yuan before the release of the reserve.
【学位授予单位】：合肥工业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F842.67;F840.4

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