协调发展视角下的城乡人口迁移地区差异计量模型研究

发布时间：2018-04-02 21:15

本文选题：人口迁移　切入点：地区差异　出处：《中国软科学》2015年05期

【摘要】：在我国城镇化水平高速发展的背景下,城乡人口能否适应协调发展的要求成为当前研究的热点问题。本文基于城乡协调发展视角,首先分析了人口迁移与城乡协调发展的互动效应,然后应用因子分析方法对城乡人口迁移地区差异的影响因素进行研究,在此基础上构建联立方程模型,包括城乡人口迁移推拉模型、城乡发展协调方程、城乡社会保障协调方程。接下来,对全国30个省、自治区、直辖市的面板数据进行了实证分析。结果表明,全国的城乡发展水平协调但城乡社会保障水平不协调。东部中部西部人口迁移量与城乡协调发展水平存在差异,社会保障水平都不协调,最后给出相应的政策建议。本文从空间角度揭示了城乡人口迁移的地区差异规律,为推动城乡协调发展及人口政策制定提供依据。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of urbanization in China, whether the urban and rural population can adapt to the requirements of coordinated development has become a hot issue.Based on the perspective of coordinated development of urban and rural areas, this paper first analyzes the interactive effects of population migration and coordinated development of urban and rural areas, and then applies factor analysis method to study the factors affecting the regional differences of migration between urban and rural areas.On this basis, the simultaneous equation model is constructed, including the push-pull model of urban and rural population migration, the coordination equation of urban and rural development, and the coordination equation of urban and rural social security.Then, the panel data of 30 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the Central Government are analyzed empirically.The results show that the level of urban and rural development is coordinated but the level of urban and rural social security is not coordinated.There are differences between population migration and coordinated development level of urban and rural areas in the eastern central and western regions, and the level of social security is not coordinated. Finally, the corresponding policy suggestions are given.This paper reveals the regional differences of urban and rural population migration from the spatial point of view, and provides the basis for promoting the coordinated development of urban and rural areas and the formulation of population policy.
【作者单位】：哈尔滨工业大学管理学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金(71473061) 黑龙江省自然科学基金(G201407) 黑龙江哲学和社会科学规划项目(13B013) 黑龙江省博士后科研基金(LBH-Q13089)
【分类号】：C921;C922

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