延迟退休对于缓解我国养老保险基金缺口的影响分析

发布时间：2018-04-14 05:05

本文选题：延迟退休年龄 + 基本养老保险基金　；参考：《山东大学》2016年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着计划生育政策的贯彻执行,人口数量增速降低、人口老龄化水平加剧,人口红利的流失所带来的经济冲击,进一步加剧了本就不完善的养老保险制度与越来越多的养老金需求之间的矛盾。我国在1997年确定了养老保险制度改革的目标,将社会统筹和个人账户两种模式同时施行,统筹部分由领取年限决定,现收现付,为职工离休后生活提供保障；个人账户部分采取个人累计制,用以补充社会统筹部分的资金,个人继承。但是根据《中国养老金发展报告2014》,至2013年底,我国城镇的基本养老保险个人账户有2.9万亿,但空账比例却有86.2%,相应的个人账户实际金额只占据了十几个百分点。可以设想,如果没有良好的预警机制及相应的改革措施的出台,在不久以后,我国将很难解决养老金亏空所带来的一系列挑战,从而会引发政府诚信缺失,社会动荡等一系列并发问题,甚至会出现更严重的后果。在这样的背景下,如何解决日益增大的养老金缺口问题则成为了当前政府工作和学界研究的重中之重。本研究以此为出发点,考虑到不同人群人力资本差异及区域差异,结合我国养老金现状及延迟退休影响因素,综合西方国家先进经验,通过数据对延迟退休年龄对养老保险基金缺口的影响进行分析,建议适时调整养老保险制度,调整分配方式和延迟退休年龄。进而针对延迟退休政策,提出合理的完善措施,加速养老金合理运行及发展。本文首先整理了国内外相关文献,查阅相关数据,试图通过资料法对国际上已经出现的较为成熟的延迟退休做法进行深度分析,总结并借鉴其适合于我国特殊社会环境的相关经验；其次,根据养老金运行现状,对资金缺口产生原因及影响因素进行数学模型分析,用实证的方法证明延迟退休年龄对于养老金个人账户和基金统筹等养老金收支平衡方面的影响效应,进一步测算延迟退休年龄的相关性、合理性；再次,通过延迟退休的人口预测模型为基础,建立延迟退休对参保人数、退休人数及养老金基金缺口影响的仿真测算,利用往年数据和实际经验,测量延迟退休年龄下,养老金的收支平衡的改良情况；最后,以测算结果为标准,通过杜绝不合理的非正常退休、逐步实现男女同龄退休、建立符合国情的弹性退休策略、建立养老金缴费年限激励机制等有计划、分步骤的延迟退休年龄政策来调整延迟退休政策的落地方式,以期促进养老金收支平衡,为我国的社会保障事业尽一份微薄之力。
[Abstract]:With the implementation of the family planning policy, the economic impact caused by the decrease in the population growth rate, the aggravation of the aging population, and the loss of the demographic dividend,Further exacerbated the already imperfect pension insurance system and more and more pension demand between the contradiction.In 1997, China established the goal of the reform of the old-age insurance system. The two models of social planning and personal account were implemented simultaneously. The overall plan was determined by the number of years received and paid in cash, which provided the guarantee for the employees' life after their retirement.The personal account part adopts the personal accumulative system, which is used to supplement the funds of the social integration part and personal inheritance.However, according to the China Pension Development report 2014, by the end of 2013, there were 2.9 trillion basic old-age insurance personal accounts in China's cities and towns, but the proportion of empty accounts was 86.2 percent, and the actual amount of the corresponding personal accounts occupied only a dozen percentage points.We can imagine that without a good early warning mechanism and the introduction of corresponding reform measures, it will be very difficult for our country to solve a series of challenges brought about by the pension deficit in the near future, which will lead to a lack of integrity on the part of the government.Social unrest and a series of concurrency problems, even more serious consequences.In this context, how to solve the problem of increasing pension gap has become the top priority of current government work and academic research.This research takes this as the starting point, considering the difference of human capital and regional difference of different people, combining the current situation of pension and the influence factors of delayed retirement in our country, synthesizing the advanced experience of western countries.Based on the analysis of the effect of late retirement age on the gap of pension fund, it is suggested that the pension insurance system should be adjusted in good time, the distribution method and the late retirement age should be adjusted.Then, in view of the delay retirement policy, puts forward the reasonable consummation measure, speeds up the pension reasonable operation and the development.This paper first collates the relevant literature at home and abroad, looks up the relevant data, attempts to carry on the in-depth analysis through the data method to the international already appeared more mature deferred retirement practice.Summarize and draw lessons from the relevant experience suitable for the special social environment of our country. Secondly, according to the current situation of pension operation, analyze the causes of the fund gap and its influencing factors by mathematical model.Using the empirical method to prove the impact of the late retirement age on pension income and expenditure balance, such as pension individual account and fund balance, and further calculate the correlation of the delay retirement age, rationality; third,Based on the population prediction model of delayed retirement, a simulation calculation of the effect of delayed retirement on the number of insured persons, the number of retirees and the gap of pension fund is established. The data of previous years and actual experience are used to measure the delayed retirement age.The improvement of the balance of income and expenditure of pensions; finally, by eliminating unreasonable and abnormal retirement, gradually realizing the retirement of men and women of the same age, and establishing a flexible retirement strategy suited to the national conditions, according to the results of calculation,In order to promote the balance of pension income and expenditure and contribute to the social security of our country, we should set up the incentive mechanism of pension contributory years and so on, step by step the policy of delaying retirement age to adjust the mode of falling into the ground of delayed retirement policy.
【学位授予单位】：山东大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F842.67

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