延迟退休年龄对我国就业结构的影响及实证分析

发布时间：2018-04-18 02:36

本文选题：延迟退休年龄 + 就业结构　；参考：《重庆大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着人类预期寿命的延长、社会老龄化的加剧,近年来多国相继推出延迟退休年龄政策,我国人力资源和社会保障部部长尹蔚民表示,人力资源和社会保障部将在2020年前推出渐进式的延长退休年龄的方案,我国也有可能推行延迟退休年龄的政策,延迟退休年龄对我国经济社会的方方面面将产生各种影响,其中对延迟退休年龄可能带来的就业问题的担忧成为阻碍我国延迟退休年龄政策推行的最大阻力。本文通过分析我国就业结构的现状和我国的退休年龄政策规定,发现我国现存退休年龄制度中存在提前退休现象较为严重、存在身份和性别差异等问题。通过DMP理论发现劳动力市场上的求职者越多则企业会提供越多的岗位,而延迟退休年龄势必会增加劳动力市场的求职者的数量,因此退休年龄与就业之间是存在联系的。同时本文通过利用世代交叠模型推理进行理论分析,发现延迟退休年龄从理论上来说可以优化就业结构。而具体运用我国的实际数据进行实证研究证明上述理论研究结果时,本文通过建立联立方程模型利用抚养比建立退休年龄与就业结构之间的联系,并且使用我国现阶段的数据进行实证分析,研究发现现阶段我国推行延迟退休年龄政策条件已经成熟,延迟退休年龄能够促进我国的经济增长进而能改善我国的就业结构。在经验分析部分,本文对全世界各个国家的延迟退休年龄的情况做了一个概述,并且详细分析了日本延迟退休年龄政策的实施,从这些研究中可以发现一些有利于我国延迟退休年龄政策推行的启示,比如实施弹性退休政策、做好相关配套政策和激励措施、实施养老金改革等。通过一系列的分析,本文最后对我国延迟退休政策的实施提出了一些政策建议,实施渐进式的延迟退休年龄政策、建立弹性退休政策、建立相关监督机制、实行男女同龄退休的制度、改革养老金双轨制问题、解决提前退休较为严重的问题等等。
[Abstract]:With the prolongation of human life expectancy and the aggravation of the aging society, in recent years, many countries have introduced delayed retirement age policies, said Yin Weimin, Minister of Human Resources and Social Security of China.The Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security will launch a gradual plan to extend the retirement age by 2020. China may also implement a policy of delaying the retirement age, which will have all kinds of effects on all aspects of our economy and society.Among them, the worry about the employment problem caused by the delay of retirement age has become the biggest obstacle to the implementation of the policy of delaying retirement age in our country.By analyzing the present situation of employment structure and the policy of retirement age in China, this paper finds that there are serious problems of early retirement in the existing retirement age system in our country, such as identity and gender difference.Through the DMP theory, it is found that the more job seekers in the labor market, the more jobs enterprises will provide, while the delay of retirement age will inevitably increase the number of job seekers in the labor market, so there is a link between retirement age and employment.At the same time, through the theoretical analysis of the overlapping model of generations, it is found that the delayed retirement age can optimize the employment structure theoretically.When using the actual data of our country to prove the results of the above theoretical research, this paper establishes the relationship between retirement age and employment structure by establishing the simultaneous equation model, using dependency ratio to establish the relationship between retirement age and employment structure.Using the present data of our country to carry on the empirical analysis, it is found that the conditions for implementing the policy of delaying retirement age are ripe at the present stage, and that the delayed retirement age can promote the economic growth of our country and then improve the employment structure of our country.In the part of empirical analysis, this paper gives an overview of the situation of delayed retirement age in various countries around the world, and analyzes in detail the implementation of Japan's delayed retirement age policy.From these studies, we can find some enlightenments that are beneficial to the implementation of the policy of delayed retirement age in China, such as implementing flexible retirement policy, doing a good job of supporting policies and incentives, implementing pension reform and so on.Through a series of analysis, this paper finally puts forward some policy suggestions on the implementation of the delayed retirement policy in our country, implements the gradual delayed retirement age policy, establishes the flexible retirement policy, and establishes the related supervision mechanism.We should implement the system of retirement of men and women of the same age, reform the dual-track pension system, and solve the more serious problems of early retirement.
【学位授予单位】：重庆大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F249.2

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