农村居民收入倍增预测及实现路径——以河北省为例

发布时间：2018-04-28 08:06

本文选题：收入倍增 + 农村居民　；参考：《经济研究参考》2015年63期

【摘要】：最近20年,我国农村居民人均纯收入呈现持续快速增长势头。从收入结构看,河北省农村居民家庭收入中超过90%的收入来自工资性收入和家庭经营性收入,而财产性收入和转移性收入所占比重较小。根据灰色综合关联度系数,工资性收入对居民家庭纯收入的影响最大,而财产性收入的影响最小。基于灰色理论的均值GM(1,1)模型(EGM)的预测结果显示,河北省农村居民实际人均纯收入倍增目标将在2016年前实现。而要顺利实现收入倍增目标,需要基于河北省实际情况和农民收入构成特点开展"造血式"扶贫、大力发展职业教育和劳动者技能培训、促进农村劳动力的充分就业、积极推进新型城镇化建设、不断提升农村社会保障体系的有效性和引导市场力量参与发展农村经济等。
[Abstract]:In the last 20 years, the per capita net income of rural residents in China has shown a sustained and rapid growth momentum. In terms of income structure, more than 90% of the household income of rural residents in Hebei Province comes from wage income and household operating income, while the proportion of property income and transfer income is relatively small. According to the grey comprehensive correlation coefficient, the influence of wage income on household net income is the biggest, while that of property income is the least. The forecast results based on the mean GM-1) model of grey theory show that the real per capita net income doubling target of rural residents in Hebei Province will be achieved by 2016. In order to achieve the goal of income doubling successfully, we need to carry out "hematopoietic" poverty alleviation based on the actual situation in Hebei Province and the characteristics of peasants' income composition, vigorously develop vocational education and skills training of workers, and promote the full employment of rural labor force. Actively promote the construction of new urbanization, continuously improve the effectiveness of the rural social security system and guide market forces to participate in the development of rural economy.
【作者单位】：河北大学;
【基金】：2014年度河北省社会科学发展研究课题《社会救助对贫困家庭收入分配影响的实证分析》的阶段性研究成果;课题编号:2014040703
【分类号】：F323.8

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