全国社保基金对我国养老保险的保障水平研究

发布时间：2018-06-08 12:14

本文选题：全国社会保障基金 + 养老保险基金　；参考：《中国财政科学研究院》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：全国社会保障基金(简称“全国社保基金”)是我国于世纪初建立的公共养老保险储备基金,主要目的之一是对人口老龄化高峰时期养老保险等社会保障相关支出进行补充和调剂。我国养老保险基金收支情况不容乐观。首先,随着我国人口老龄化的不断加剧,养老保险基金收支情况开始变差,根据王虎邦(2014)的预测,在保持养老保险替代率水平稳定的情况下,预计到2024年左右养老保险基金支出将首次大于收入,到2033年左右养老保险累计结余将被耗光,到2050年左右,养老保险基金将出现非常巨大的累计缺口。其次,由于养老保险制度转轨时遗留的问题,致使基本养老保险基金个人账户持续“空账”运行,并开始严重威胁到社保保障制度的稳定运行。根据《中国劳动保障发展报告》,截止到2014年,养老保险基金个人账户“空账”规模已经达到35,973亿元,成为养老保险基金稳定运行的重大隐患。面对如此严峻的形势,全国社保基金承担的责任更加重大,急需加强对全国社会保障基金的运行情况及其对养老保险的保障水平的研究。本文通过对养老保险基金和全国社保基金的相关理论、运行机制、收支现状等内容进行系统分析,结合部分发达国家公共养老保险储备基金的运行实践,探讨在养老保险替代率长期稳定的情况下全国社保基金对养老保险的保障水平,为提高其对养老保险支出的保障水平提出四个方面的政策建议。本文还通过数理统计的方法预测了现行制度下和采用改进政策后全国社保基金规模变化情况,预测结果显示按照现有筹资速度到2050年左右全国社保基金将积累到55.61万亿元,不能有效覆盖此时期养老保险基金将出现的累计基金缺口。若采用相关改进措施后,到2050年全国社保基金规模将积累到172.92万亿元,是现行制度下筹资规模的3.11倍,能够有效覆盖此时期养老保险基金出现的累计基金缺口,达到对养老保险支出提供保障的目标。全文共分六章,第一章,导论。介绍了全国社保基金和养老保险基金研究的背景、意义以及相关的文献综述。第二章,社会保障相关理论分析。论述了养老保险基金和全国社保基金设立和运行的理论基础。第三章,我国养老保险基金和全国社保基金运行现状分析。主要对我国养老保险基金及全国社保基金运行现状进行了分析。第四章,全国社保基金对我国养老保险保障水平分析。根据合理假设建立数理模型,对全国社会保障基金和养老保险基金的运行进行预测,据此分析全国社会保障基金对养老保险的保障水平。第五章,部分发达国家公共养老保险储备基金模式及其对养老保险的保障水平分析。主要对法国、爱尔兰、挪威和日本四国在公共养老保险储备基金上的运行实践进行比较分析,为我国全国社会保障基金发展运行提供经验和借鉴。第六章,提高全国社保基金对养老保险保障水平的政策建议。针对全国社会保障基金保障水平不足的情况,提出了四个方面的改革建议。在本章的最后,对全文进行了总结梳理,提出养老保险支出缺口是一个长期性问题,不能仅仅依靠全国社会保障基金来进行补充,需要与养老保险制度改革相互配合,共同解决这一长期性问题。总的来说,全国社保基金经过十多年的发展已经取得了相当大的成就,但若仍以目前的机制运行,在保持养老保险替代率不变的情况下,其对人口老龄化高峰时期的养老保险支出保障水平将出现不足。因此,全国社保基金需要通过采取包括改革筹资机制、完善投资机制、健全管理机制和提升监管效能四方面在内的多项措施来改进和完善其管理运行水平,提升其对养老保险的保障的能力,才能更好维护我国社会保障制度的健康稳定运行。
[Abstract]:The National Social Security Fund ("national social security fund") is a public endowment insurance reserve fund established at the beginning of the century in China. One of the main purposes is to supplement and adjust the social security related expenditure, such as pension insurance in the peak period of population aging. The aging of the population is becoming worse and worse. According to Wang Hubang (2014), it is expected that in the case of maintaining the stability of the replacement rate of pension insurance, it is expected that the pension fund will be more than the income for the first time by 2024. By 2033, the accumulated balance of the left right pension insurance will be consumed to the end of 2050. The endowment insurance fund will have a huge cumulative gap. Secondly, due to the problems left over in the transition of the pension insurance system, the individual account of the basic endowment insurance fund continues to run "empty accounts", and it has begun to seriously threaten the stable operation of the social security system. According to the China labor security development report, by the end of 2014, the pension system has been used for the elderly. The scale of the "empty account" of the individual account of the insurance fund has reached 35973 billion yuan, which has become a major hidden danger for the stable operation of the endowment insurance fund. In the face of such a severe situation, the responsibility for the national social security fund is more important. It is urgent to strengthen the research on the operation of the national social security fund and the level of its support for the pension insurance. Through the systematic analysis of the related theories of the pension fund and the national social security fund, the operating mechanism and the status of the income and expenditure, combined with the operation practice of the public endowment insurance reserve fund in some developed countries, this paper discusses the security level of the national social security fund for the elderly under the condition of long-term stability of the replacement rate of pension insurance. It puts forward four policy suggestions on the security level of pension insurance. This paper also predicts the scale change of the national social security fund under the current system and the adoption of improved policies through mathematical statistics. The results show that the national social security fund will accumulate to 55 trillion and 610 billion yuan in accordance with the current rate of financing to 2050. The cumulative fund gap will not be effectively covered by the pension fund in this period. If relevant improvements are adopted, the scale of the national social security fund will accumulate to 172 trillion and 920 billion yuan by 2050, which is 3.11 times the scale of the fund raising under the current system. It can effectively cover the accumulated fund gap of the endowment insurance fund in this period and reach the pension fund for the aged. The full text is divided into six chapters. The full text is divided into six chapters, Chapter 1, introduction. It introduces the background, significance and related literature review of the national social security fund and endowment insurance fund. The second chapter, the theoretical analysis of social security related theory. The theoretical foundation of the establishment and operation of the endowment insurance fund and the national social security fund is discussed. Chapter third, Analysis of the running status of China's endowment insurance fund and the national social security fund. The fourth chapter is the analysis of the status of China's endowment insurance fund and the national social security fund. The national social security fund is an analysis of the security level of the pension insurance in China. A mathematical model is set up according to the reasonable hypothesis, and the national social security fund and the endowment insurance fund are established. In the fifth chapter, the model of the public endowment insurance reserve fund in some developed countries and the security level of the pension insurance are analyzed. The operation practice of the four countries in France, Ireland, Norway and Japan in the public pension insurance reserve fund is mainly carried out. Comparison and analysis to provide experience and reference for the development and operation of the national social security fund in China. The sixth chapter, to improve the national social security fund policy recommendations for the level of endowment insurance. In view of the insufficient level of the national social security fund guarantee level, four aspects of the reform proposals are put forward. At the end of this chapter, the full text is summarized. It is a long-term problem that the pension insurance expenditure gap is a long-term problem. It can not only rely on the national social security fund to supplement it. It needs to cooperate with the pension system reform to solve this long-term problem. In general, the national social security fund has made considerable achievements after more than 10 years of development, but if still, it still has a great achievement. With the current mechanism running, in the case of maintaining the replacement rate of pension insurance, the level of pension insurance expenditure in the peak period of population aging will be insufficient. Therefore, the national social security fund needs to adopt the reform financing mechanism, improve the investment mechanism, improve the management mechanism and improve the supervision efficiency in four aspects. In order to better maintain the healthy and stable operation of the social security system in China, many measures have been made to improve and improve the management and operation level and improve their ability to guarantee the old-age insurance.
【学位授予单位】：中国财政科学研究院
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F842.67

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