以内蒙古四子王旗查干补力格苏木为例

  本文关键词：牧民应对气候变化的社会脆弱性——以内蒙古荒漠草原的一个嘎查为例，，由笔耕文化传播整理发布。

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研究[J].北京大学学报,2012,48(2):285-295.

Herdsmen’sPerceptionsandAdaptiontoClimateChange:ACaseStudyinChaganbulige,SiziwangBanner,InnerMongolia

JINLe-shan,WEITong-yang,HUZhen-tong

(CollegeofHumanitiesandDevelopmentStudies,ChinaAgriculturalUniversity,Beijing100193,China)

Abstract:Afieldsurveywithasampleof98householdswascarriedoutinChaganbulige,SiziwangBanner,InnerMongoliainordertounderstandherdsmen’sperceptionofclimatechangeandcompareitwithmeteorologicaldataandtheofficialrecordofextremeclimateevents.Theresultsshowedthatmostherdsmencorrectlyperceivedthechangeintemperature,buttheyhadinexactjudgementonprecipitation,windandsandstorm.Inthepast40years,temperatureinSiziwangBannerwasslowlyincreasing.Theprecipitationandstormswerefluctuatinggreatly,butthelong-termtrenddidnotchangemuchthoughmostherdsmenreportedthattherainfallwassignificantlydecreasing.Recentyearsofextremeclimateeventsimpressedherdsmenmost.

Astotheimpactsofextremeclimateevents,droughtwasmostimpressivetoherdersfollowedbysnowstormsandsandstorms.Foradaptingtoclimatechangeherdsmenhad

222自然资源学报29卷spontaneouslytakenvariousadaptivemeasures,ofwhich22adaptationmeasureswerereportedinthesurvey.Thetopfivemeasuresthatwereusedbymostherdsmenarestoringmorehayandforage,reducingtheherdsize,buildingwarmshed,borrowingmoney(loan),and“notletnextgenerationsbeherders”.Othersincludebuildingcorral,diggingwell,plantingfodder,cooperationinvaccinationsofcattle,reducinghouseholdexpenditures,changinggrazinglocation,rentinggrassland,introducingnewbreeds,savings,wagelabor,givingupherding,alternativelivelihoods(e.g.tourism),sharingherdingarrangement,etc.

The22spontaneousadaptationmeasureswereassessedbyexpertswiththemethodofmultiplecriteriaanalysis(MCA).Thecriteriaincludeeffectiveness,economicbenefits,flexibility,no-regret,side-effect,compliancewithgovernmentpoliciesandplans,compatibilitywithdevelopmentgoals,andreplicability.Theresultsshowedthatbuildingwarmshed,theintroductionofnewbreeds,hayandforagestorage,reducingtheherdsizeandwagelabormetthemostcriteria.

Thespontaneousadaptationmeasureswerefurtherscreenedbyherdsmen,researchers,andlocalgovernmentofficialswiththeparticipatorymethod.Theresultsshowedthatmeasuressuchasbuildingwarmshed,introductionofnewbreeds,hayandforagestorage,reducingtheherdsizeandloanweremoreeffectivethanothers,whichdidnottotallycoincidewiththeresultsofexpertassessment.

Tosupportthespontaneousadaptationmeasureswhichwereselectedtobemostpracticalandeffective,theherdersidentifiedthefollowingpoliciesthatweremostlyneeded,i.e.loansupport,theimprovementofsocialsecurity,accurateweatherforecastsandpestforecasts,animalinsurance,training,marketaccessenhancement,enhancementofinfrastructure,warmshedsubsidiesanddrinkingwaterproject.Thosepolicieswouldimproveherdsmen’sabilityofadaptingtoclimatechange,helpherdsmentocopewithextremeclimateevents,andreducetheirvulnerabilityoflivelihoods.

Keywords:climatechange;perceptionofclimatechange;spontaneousadaptation;SiziwangBanner

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  本文关键词：牧民应对气候变化的社会脆弱性——以内蒙古荒漠草原的一个嘎查为例，由笔耕文化传播整理发布。