基于突变理论的科技评价方法初探
发布时间：2018-08-07 14:41
【摘要】：探讨一种基于突变理论的针对颠覆性技术的科技评价方法。运用数学建模法即尖点型突变方程构建颠覆性技术的预测模型,其新颖之处是以创新发展为评价导向,在现有企业层次微观模型基础上提出国家层次宏观模型的变量方案。研究结果是以科技替代率为势函数行为变量、以科技评价引导的社会认可度和创新驱动发展力度为控制变量的新型预测模型。本文的结论是:如果以替代率为果、认可度和创新力为因的颠覆性技术演化过程具有如模型所示的量化关系,那么以创新驱动发展为导向的科技评价便对技术发展临界状态的调控具有重要作用。本文为科技评价和创新政策决策等领域研究者提供理论参考。
[Abstract]:This paper discusses a scientific and technological evaluation method for subversive technology based on catastrophe theory. The prediction model of subversive technology is constructed by using the mathematical modeling method, that is, the cusp catastrophe equation. The novelty of the model is to take innovation and development as the evaluation direction, and on the basis of the existing micro models at the enterprise level, the variable scheme of the macroscopic model at the national level is put forward. The result of the study is a new prediction model, which takes the rate of substitution of science and technology as the potential function behavior variable, and takes the social acceptance and innovation driving force of science and technology evaluation as the control variables. The conclusion of this paper is that if the substitution rate is taken as the result, the evolutionary process of subversive technology with recognition and innovation as the cause has the quantitative relationship as shown in the model. Then the innovation-driven development-oriented evaluation of science and technology will play an important role in the regulation of the critical state of technological development. This paper provides a theoretical reference for researchers in science and technology evaluation and innovation policy decision.
【作者单位】： 中国科协创新战略研究院;清华大学—中国科学院学部科学与社会协同发展研究中心;
【基金】：中国科协创新战略研究院资助项目“2049年的中国:科技与社会展望的理论方法研究”,编号:2016ys2-3,起止时间:2016.3.-12
【分类号】：C91-0
本文编号：2170350
[Abstract]:This paper discusses a scientific and technological evaluation method for subversive technology based on catastrophe theory. The prediction model of subversive technology is constructed by using the mathematical modeling method, that is, the cusp catastrophe equation. The novelty of the model is to take innovation and development as the evaluation direction, and on the basis of the existing micro models at the enterprise level, the variable scheme of the macroscopic model at the national level is put forward. The result of the study is a new prediction model, which takes the rate of substitution of science and technology as the potential function behavior variable, and takes the social acceptance and innovation driving force of science and technology evaluation as the control variables. The conclusion of this paper is that if the substitution rate is taken as the result, the evolutionary process of subversive technology with recognition and innovation as the cause has the quantitative relationship as shown in the model. Then the innovation-driven development-oriented evaluation of science and technology will play an important role in the regulation of the critical state of technological development. This paper provides a theoretical reference for researchers in science and technology evaluation and innovation policy decision.
【作者单位】： 中国科协创新战略研究院;清华大学—中国科学院学部科学与社会协同发展研究中心;
【基金】：中国科协创新战略研究院资助项目“2049年的中国:科技与社会展望的理论方法研究”,编号:2016ys2-3,起止时间:2016.3.-12
【分类号】：C91-0
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