沉没努力效应的实验研究

发布时间：2018-01-30 09:52

本文关键词： 沉没努力效应行为沉没成本效应沉没成本效应选项来源成功概率估计值　出处：《华中师范大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：行为沉没成本效应是沉没成本效应研究的新趋向。沉没成本效应的系统研究已有三十余年,但是先前研究的考察对象几乎无一例外地关注金钱成本,因而其所有的研究方法和结论是来源于传统的沉没成本效应——沉没金钱成本效应。近几年来,研究者开始关注时间和努力等行为投资在沉没成本效应中的独特地位和作用,并由此产生了行为沉没成本效应：沉没时间效应和沉没努力效应。相比于金钱和时间,努力不仅与人们的生活息息相关,且更难以量化和操纵,但其影响确实广泛而深远,研究价值和意义不言自明。本文的3个实证研究探讨了沉没努力效应的存在性和影响因素。研究一采用简单的单因素设计,通过虚拟情境(实验1)和真实任务(实验2)对沉没努力效应进行了初步验证。结果发现,沉没努力效应与沉没努力程度存在显著的正相关,且沉没努力效应是一种稳健存在的决策偏差。研究二在研究一的基础上采用2(努力程度：低vs.高)×2(选项来源：坚持己见vs.附和他人)组间设计,探讨二者对沉没努力效应的影响。结果发现,努力程度和选项来源对沉没努力效应存在显著的交互作用,在低努力程度情境中,附和他人的决策者更容易表现出沉没努力效应,而在高努力情境中,坚持己见的决策者更可能表现出沉没努力效应。研究三采用2(努力程度：低vs.高)×2(评估时间：继续投资之前vs.继续投资之后)组间设计,旨在探究决策者对继续投资成功的概率的估计值(PSE)对沉没努力效应的作用。统计结果显示,不同的沉没努力程度而非何时评估时间在沉没努力效应中具有显著作用。其次,研究三发现在表现出沉没努力效应的被试比未表现出沉没努力效应的被试给出更高PSE。进一步分析表明,相比于评估时间,PSE更多受到努力程度的影响,且付出较多努力的被试会比较低努力的被试高估继续投资的成功概率。这些结论表明PSE对沉没努力效应并无直接作用,其影响是通过努力程度来实现的。
[Abstract]:The behavior of sunk cost effect is the new trend of sunk cost effects. The existing system of sunk cost effect for more than thirty years, but the study of previous studies almost invariably focus on money cost, so all of its research methods and conclusions are derived from the traditional sunk cost effect -- money sunk cost effect. In recent years, research start and pay attention to the role of time and effort and investment behavior in a unique position in the sunk cost effect, and the resulting behavior of the sunk cost effect: sunk and sunk to the time effect effect. Compared to the money and time, not only closely related to people's lives, and more difficult to quantify and manipulate, but its influence is extensive and far-reaching research value and significance is self-evident. 3 this paper discusses the existence and influence factors to sink effect.
A study on the design of single factor, the virtual context (Experiment 1) and real task (Experiment 2) to the sinking effort effect is tested. The results showed that there was a significant positive correlation with the sinking effort effect effort and hard sinking, sinking effect is a robust decision bias.
Two in the study of the study based on the 2 (effort: low vs. high) * 2 (source: vs. options insist to follow others) between group design, to explore the effect of the two sinking effort effect. The results showed that the level of effort and option sources has significant interaction on sinking efforts in the low effect. To follow others situation, decision makers are more likely to exhibit sinking efforts effect, while in high hard situation, insist the decision makers are more likely to exhibit the sinking effort effect.
Study on the three by 2 (effort: low vs. high) * 2 (assessment time: continue to invest before continuing to invest after vs.) between group design, aims to explore the decision makers to estimate the probability of successful investment continue to value (PSE) of hard sinking effect. The statistical results showed that the different degree of effort rather than sinking when time has a significant role in the sinking to effect. Secondly, study three is now showing sinking effort effect subjects than did not show the effect of the subjects are sinking to a higher PSE. further analysis shows that compared to the evaluation time, PSE are more influenced by the degree of effort, and pay more efforts to subjects the participants will be relatively low to overestimate the probability of success to investment. These conclusions show that the direct effect of PSE on the sinking of the impact is not to effect, through the effort to achieve.

【学位授予单位】：华中师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：B842

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