自尊、时间压力、概率水平影响风险决策的实验研究

发布时间：2018-04-16 11:07

本文选题：风险决策 + 自尊水平　；参考：《河北师范大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：人们的生活充满了决策，我们每天都在做决策，人生就是一个不断进行决策的过程。当然人类的决策很多都带有风险性，我们的生活中不可避免会进行风险决策。风险决策是人类所有决策中最富有特色的，因此风险决策作为个体决策的一个类别成为近年来研究的热点，很多学者对其理论的探讨和影响因素进行研究，取得了一定的成果。本研究在前人的风险决策理论和有关研究的基础上，探讨了风险决策的三种影响因素：人格因素、决策任务特征因素和决策情境因素。本研究从上述影响风险决策的三种特征因素中各选取了一个成分，采用2（自尊水平：高自尊、低自尊）×2（时间压力：有时间压力、无时间压力）×3（概率水平：高概率水平、中概率水平、低概率水平）的三因素混合实验设计来探讨它们对风险决策的影响，自尊水平和时间压力为被试间变量，概率水平为被试内变量，因变量是被试的风险决策分数。本研究所涉及的风险问题分为三种风险决策情景，因此分开探讨，所得结果如下：在对抗疾病的风险决策情景中，自尊水平和时间压力的主效应不显著；概率水平的主效应显著，被试在低概率水平下比在中概率水平和高概率水平下更倾向冒险，在中概率水平和高概率水平下的决策差异不显著；自尊水平与时间压力、概率水平与时间压力的交互作用均显著。在投资盈利的风险决策情景中，，自尊水平和时间压力的主效应不显著；概率水平的主效应显著，被试在低概率水平下比在中概率水平和高概率水平下更倾向冒险，在中概率水平和高概率水平下的差异不显著；三个因素之间的交互作用都不显著。在投资失败的风险决策情景中，自尊水平和时间压力的主效应不显著；概率水平的主效应显著，被试在低概率水平下比在中概率水平和高概率水平下更倾向冒险，在中概率水平和高概率水平下的差异不显著；三个因素之间的交互作用都不显著。因此本研究得出的结论是自尊水平和时间压力不影响风险决策，概率水平对风险决策有显著的影响，其中在低概率水平下人们倾向冒险，在中概率水平和高概率水平下人们的决策倾向于保守。在不同的风险决策情景中三个因素之间的交互作用是不同的，在对抗疾病的风险决策情景中，自尊水平与时间压力、概率水平与时间压力的交互作用显著；在投资盈利和投资失败的风险决策情景中，三个因素之间的交互作用都不显著。
[Abstract]:People's lives are full of decisions, we make decisions every day, life is a continuous decision-making process.Of course, many of our decisions are risky, and risk decisions are inevitable in our lives.Risk decision is the most characteristic of all human decision-making, so risk decision, as a category of individual decision-making, has become a hot topic in recent years. Many scholars have studied its theory and influencing factors, and achieved certain results.On the basis of the former risk decision theory and related research, this paper discusses three influencing factors of risk decision: personality factor, decision task characteristic factor and decision situation factor.In this study, one component was selected from each of the three characteristic factors that affected risk decision making, and 2 (self-esteem level: high self-esteem, low self-esteem) 脳 2 (time pressure: time pressure, no time pressure) 脳 3 (probability level: high probability level), 2 (time pressure: time pressure, no time pressure) 脳 3 (probability level: high probability level).The middle probability level and low probability level) were designed to study their influence on risk decision making. Self-esteem level and time pressure were inter-subjects variables, probabilistic level was intra-subjects variables, and dependent variables were the risk decision scores of the subjects.The risk issues involved in this study are divided into three risk decision-making scenarios and are discussed separately. The results are as follows:The main effects of self-esteem and time stress were not significant in the risk decision scenarios against disease, and the main effects of probability level were significant, subjects were more likely to take risks at low probability level than at middle probability level and high probability level.There was no significant difference in decision-making between middle probability level and high probability level, and the interaction between self-esteem level and time pressure, probability level and time pressure was significant.The main effects of self-esteem and time pressure were not significant in the risk decision-making scenario of investment profit, and the main effect of probability level was significant, the subjects were more likely to take risks at the low probability level than at the middle probability level and the high probability level.There is no significant difference between the middle probability level and the high probability level, and the interaction between the three factors is not significant.The main effects of self-esteem level and time pressure were not significant in the risk decision scenarios of investment failure, and the main effects of probability level were significant, subjects were more likely to take risks at low probability level than at middle probability level and high probability level.There is no significant difference between the middle probability level and the high probability level, and the interaction between the three factors is not significant.Therefore, the conclusion of this study is that the level of self-esteem and time pressure does not affect risk decision-making, but the probability level has a significant impact on risk decision-making, in which people tend to take risks at the low probability level.People tend to be conservative in their decisions at the medium probability level and the high probability level.The interaction between the three factors is different in different risk decision-making scenarios. In the risk decision scenarios against disease, the interaction between self-esteem level and time pressure, probability level and time pressure is significant.The interaction between the three factors is not significant in the risk decision scenarios of investment profit and investment failure.
【学位授予单位】：河北师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：B842

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