心理研究引入贝叶斯统计推断的必要性、应用思路与领域

发布时间：2018-05-02 13:45

本文选题：频数概率 + 先验概率　；参考：《心理科学》2017年06期

【摘要】：本文从科学范式演变和概率统计推断特征分析出发,就贝叶斯统计推断引入心理学的必要性、怎么应用、在哪些领域应用进行了论述。首先在分析科学范式演进各阶段统计推断任务需要、经典的频率概率统计推断不足基础上,得出科学范式处于危机和革命阶段时需要对相关理论做可信度检验。然后,在介绍贝叶斯定理及其统计推断的基础上,进一步分析了贝叶斯推断能解决理论可信度的多种假设检验情景。最后本文还就贝叶斯统计推断在心理学理论争鸣与建构、心理技术产品开发与评估具体领域应用做了分析。
[Abstract]:Based on the evolution of the scientific paradigm and the analysis of the characteristics of probability and statistics inference, this paper discusses the necessity of introducing Bayesian statistical inference into psychology, how to apply it, and the fields in which it is applied. Firstly, based on the analysis of the need of statistical inference in each stage of the evolution of scientific paradigm and the insufficiency of classical frequency probability statistical inference, it is concluded that when the scientific paradigm is in crisis and revolution stage, it is necessary to test the credibility of relevant theories. Then, based on the introduction of Bayesian theorem and its statistical inference, several hypothetical test scenarios in which Bayesian inference can solve the reliability of theory are further analyzed. Finally, this paper analyzes the application of Bayesian statistical inference in the field of psychological theory contention and construction, psychological technology product development and evaluation.
【作者单位】：内蒙古师范大学内蒙古高校人文社科重点研究基地心理教育研究中心;苏塞克斯大学心理学院;内蒙古师范大学内蒙古自治区心理学重点实验室;
【基金】：国家留学基金委西部人才特别培养项目(201208155069) 内蒙古高校人文社科重点研究基地心理教育研究中心课题(NMGJDXLZDI005)的资助
【分类号】：B84-0

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