任务经验以及预测视角对规划谬误的影响

发布时间：2018-06-02 17:25

本文选题：规划谬误 + 任务经验　；参考：《应用心理学》2015年03期

【摘要】：规划谬误是指人们在估计未来任务的完成时间时,倾向于过度乐观,低估任务完成时间的一种现象。本文从任务经验的视角,采用问卷调查法为主,并结合行为实验的方法,通过对在校大学生的点钞实验,对规划谬误中参与者与观察者的预测偏差进行研究。实验1发现个体的任务经验水平越高,越容易低估任务完成所需要的时间。实验2发现:在不同任务经验的观察者与参与者的组合中,仅在高经验的观察者与高经验的参与者之间不存在着预测偏差的显著差异。实验结果表明:任务经验以及时间预测视角(参与者或观察者预测)对规划谬误的影响显著,而且任务经验对时间预测的影响可能会掩盖由于预测视角不同而带来的时间预测准确度的改变。
[Abstract]:Planning fallacy is a phenomenon that people tend to be overly optimistic and underestimate the time of task completion when estimating the completion time of future tasks. From the perspective of task experience, this paper studies the prediction bias between participants and observers in planning fallacy by means of questionnaire survey and behavior experiment. Experiment 1 found that the higher the level of task experience, the easier it was to underestimate the time required to complete the task. Experiment 2 found that there was no significant difference in prediction deviation between the highly experienced observer and the highly experienced participant in the combination of observers and participants with different task experience. The experimental results show that task experience and time prediction perspective (participant or observer prediction) have significant effects on planning fallacy. Moreover, the influence of task experience on time prediction may mask the change of time prediction accuracy caused by different prediction perspectives.
【作者单位】：华中师范大学心理学院暨湖北省人的发展与心理健康重点实验室;青少年网络心理与行为教育部重点实验室;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(71571083)
【分类号】：B848

【相似文献】