概率信息的图文表征对风险规避的影响
发布时间：2018-09-10 17:43
【摘要】：概率的表征方式对人类生活有重要影响。人类生活在充满风险的世界中。个人、政府、医院和其它多方之间都有沟通风险的必要。沟通中重要的一环,就是传达风险发生的概率这一数字信息。而研究发现,相同的概率信息用不同的方式表征出来,产生的效果也不相同。本文以前人研究为基础,探讨在风险概率条件下,同一性质的风险事件的图文表征方式对人类风险规避的影响。本文采用前人的“愿付价格”研究范式,把对产品的愿付定价作为个体风险规避程度的指标,对以下几个科学问题进行探讨：1.小风险概率下,图文表征方式对风险规避的影响。2.大风险概率下,图文表征对风险规避的影响。3.从小风险概率到大风险概率,图文表征引起风险规避的变化趋势。4.风险信息图形表征的加工方式研究。实验1采用了30/5000和15/5000的小风险概率,来表示标准牙膏和改良牙膏引起牙龈问题的风险。用饼图、文字和饼图配数字三种方式呈现风险信息。结果发现,饼图条件下参与者愿意支付改良牙膏的价格最低。其它两种情况下无显著差异。这表明小概率条件下,饼图表征条件下的风险规避显著小于文字和饼图配数字两种表征方式的风险规避。实验2采用了3000/5000和1500/5000的大风险概率,来表示标准牙膏和改良牙膏引起牙龈问题的风险,以探讨三种表征条件下的愿付价格情况。结果发现,饼图条件下参与者愿意给改良牙膏的价格最高。其它两种情况下无显著差异。这表明大风险概率条件下,饼图表征条件下的风险规避显著大于文字和饼图配数字两种表征方式的风险规避。实验3对19种概率条件下图文表征方式对风险规避的影响进行探讨。结果发现,在1%的概率差值条件下,饼图表征引起的风险规避显著小于文字表征；在3%～18%的概率差值条件下,饼图表征与文字表征无显著差异；而概率差值增加到27%及更大时,饼图表征引起的风险规避稳定大于文字表征。实验4引导参与者用逐字加工方式对图形信息进行加工。结果发现参与者对于饼图信息的估计准确度与文字呈现无差异。特别重要的是,这种加工方式下的饼图表征引起的风险规避在低、中、高三种概率水平下都与文字表征引起的风险规避无显著差异。总之,本研究发现：(1)风险信息的图文表征方式会影响决策中的风险规避。(2)小概率条件下,图形表征方式引起的风险规避显著小于文字表征方式。(3)大概率条件下,图形表征引起的风险规避显著大于文字表征形式。(4)改变图形表征的加工方式能调制风险规避。这些结果表明,图形表征方式和信息加工方式都会影响决策中的风险规避。
[Abstract]:The representation of probability has an important influence on human life. Man lives in a world full of risks. Individuals, governments, hospitals, and others all need to communicate with each other at risk. An important part of communication is to convey the digital message of the probability of risk. The study found that the same probability information is represented in different ways, and the effect is different. Based on previous studies, this paper discusses the influence of the graph-text representation of the same nature of risk events on human risk aversion under the condition of risk probability. In this paper, by using the previous paradigm of "willing to pay", this paper takes the willing price of product as the index of individual risk aversion, and probes into the following scientific problems: 1. Under small risk probability, the effect of graphic representation on risk aversion. 2. Under high risk probability, the influence of graph and text representation on risk aversion. 3. From small risk probability to large risk probability, the change trend of risk aversion caused by graph and text. 4. 4. A study on the processing methods of graphical representation of risk Information. Experiment 1 used a low risk probability of 30 / 5, 000 and 15 / 5, 000 to indicate the risk of gingival problems caused by standard toothpaste and improved toothpaste. Use pie chart, text and pie chart with the number of three ways to present risk information. The results showed that participants were willing to pay the lowest price for improved toothpaste under pie chart conditions. There was no significant difference between the other two conditions. This shows that the risk aversion under the condition of small probability is significantly less than that of the two representation ways of character and pie figure. In experiment 2, the risk of gingival problems caused by standard toothpaste and modified toothpaste was expressed by using the high risk probability of 3000 / 5000 and 1500 / 5000 respectively. The results showed that participants were willing to pay the highest price for improved toothpaste under pie chart conditions. There was no significant difference between the other two conditions. This shows that under the condition of large risk probability, the risk aversion under the representation of pie chart is significantly larger than that under the representation of character and number of pie graph. In experiment 3, the effects of graphic representation on risk aversion under 19 probabilistic conditions were discussed. The results showed that under the condition of 1% probability difference, the risk aversion caused by pie chart representation was significantly less than that by character representation, but there was no significant difference between pie chart representation and character representation under the condition of probability difference of 3% or 18%. When the probability difference is increased to 27% or more, the risk avoidance caused by pie chart representation is more stable than that by literal representation. Experiment 4 leads participants to process graphic information verbatim. The results showed that there was no difference between the accuracy of the pie chart information and the text. It is particularly important that the risk aversion caused by the pie chart representation in this processing mode is not significantly different from that caused by literal representation at the low, middle and high probability levels. In a word, this study finds that: (1) risk information representation will affect risk aversion in decision making. (2) under small probability, the risk aversion caused by graphic representation is significantly smaller than that caused by literal representation. (3) under the condition of large probability, the risk aversion caused by graphic representation is significantly lower than that by word representation. The risk aversion caused by graphic representation is significantly greater than that by literal representation. (4) changing the processing mode of graphic representation can modulate risk aversion. These results show that both graphical representation and information processing will affect risk avoidance in decision-making.
【学位授予单位】：浙江师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：B842
本文编号：2235156
[Abstract]:The representation of probability has an important influence on human life. Man lives in a world full of risks. Individuals, governments, hospitals, and others all need to communicate with each other at risk. An important part of communication is to convey the digital message of the probability of risk. The study found that the same probability information is represented in different ways, and the effect is different. Based on previous studies, this paper discusses the influence of the graph-text representation of the same nature of risk events on human risk aversion under the condition of risk probability. In this paper, by using the previous paradigm of "willing to pay", this paper takes the willing price of product as the index of individual risk aversion, and probes into the following scientific problems: 1. Under small risk probability, the effect of graphic representation on risk aversion. 2. Under high risk probability, the influence of graph and text representation on risk aversion. 3. From small risk probability to large risk probability, the change trend of risk aversion caused by graph and text. 4. 4. A study on the processing methods of graphical representation of risk Information. Experiment 1 used a low risk probability of 30 / 5, 000 and 15 / 5, 000 to indicate the risk of gingival problems caused by standard toothpaste and improved toothpaste. Use pie chart, text and pie chart with the number of three ways to present risk information. The results showed that participants were willing to pay the lowest price for improved toothpaste under pie chart conditions. There was no significant difference between the other two conditions. This shows that the risk aversion under the condition of small probability is significantly less than that of the two representation ways of character and pie figure. In experiment 2, the risk of gingival problems caused by standard toothpaste and modified toothpaste was expressed by using the high risk probability of 3000 / 5000 and 1500 / 5000 respectively. The results showed that participants were willing to pay the highest price for improved toothpaste under pie chart conditions. There was no significant difference between the other two conditions. This shows that under the condition of large risk probability, the risk aversion under the representation of pie chart is significantly larger than that under the representation of character and number of pie graph. In experiment 3, the effects of graphic representation on risk aversion under 19 probabilistic conditions were discussed. The results showed that under the condition of 1% probability difference, the risk aversion caused by pie chart representation was significantly less than that by character representation, but there was no significant difference between pie chart representation and character representation under the condition of probability difference of 3% or 18%. When the probability difference is increased to 27% or more, the risk avoidance caused by pie chart representation is more stable than that by literal representation. Experiment 4 leads participants to process graphic information verbatim. The results showed that there was no difference between the accuracy of the pie chart information and the text. It is particularly important that the risk aversion caused by the pie chart representation in this processing mode is not significantly different from that caused by literal representation at the low, middle and high probability levels. In a word, this study finds that: (1) risk information representation will affect risk aversion in decision making. (2) under small probability, the risk aversion caused by graphic representation is significantly smaller than that caused by literal representation. (3) under the condition of large probability, the risk aversion caused by graphic representation is significantly lower than that by word representation. The risk aversion caused by graphic representation is significantly greater than that by literal representation. (4) changing the processing mode of graphic representation can modulate risk aversion. These results show that both graphical representation and information processing will affect risk avoidance in decision-making.
【学位授予单位】：浙江师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：B842
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