基于空间效应的个体行为决策模型研究与仿真

发布时间：2019-03-08 19:46

【摘要】：随着城市现代化发展,大型建筑物、大型商场、电影院、音乐会场等相对封闭的空间逐步增多,人群密度越来越大。这些相对封闭的空间具有结构复杂、光线不足、出口有限、人员数量众多、人员构成多样等特点。处于这样的空间,人员在生理和心理上会承受巨大的压力。拥挤的人群导致近年来踩踏事故屡屡发生,对人们的生命安全造成了威胁,对社会财产造成了严重的损失。踩踏事故的发生,很大程度上是公共场所大规模群体行为失控的结果。因此对公共场所大规模群体行为的研究成为了热点。本文以封闭空间为研究场景,以社会力模型为基础,从微观个体的角度研究个体行为决策过程机理,关注场景熟悉度和情绪因子对个体行为决策乃至整个群体行为的影响,用数学模型描述情绪因子对个体的影响,并将这一模型加入到社会力模型中,构造了包含情绪因子的改进社会力模型。利用repast仿真工具包开发了群体行为仿真平台。在该平台上设计了仿真实验,对地铁站台应急疏散进行仿真。仿真结果表明群体中部分个体具有从众性、群聚性的特点,情绪对群体行为是有影响的,且情绪影响下的群体的行为更加无规则。同时又对实际的地铁站台的聚群现象进行了仿真及对照,结果显示改进模型能够很好的对实际中的群体行为进行模拟,验证了模型的合理性。
[Abstract]:With the development of urban modernization, large buildings, large shopping malls, cinemas, music venues and other relatively closed space gradually increased, the density of the crowd is increasing. These relatively closed spaces have the characteristics of complex structure, insufficient light, limited export, large number of personnel and diverse personnel composition. In such a space, people will be physically and psychologically under great pressure. Crowded crowd led to frequent stampede accidents in recent years, which threatened people's lives and caused serious damage to social property. The occurrence of stampede is largely the result of mass behavior out of control in public places. Therefore, the research on large-scale group behavior in public places has become a hot spot. Based on the social force model and the closed space, this paper studies the mechanism of individual behavior decision-making from the perspective of micro-individuals, and pays attention to the influence of scene familiarity and emotional factors on individual behavior decision-making and even the whole group behavior. The mathematical model is used to describe the influence of emotional factors on individuals, and this model is added to the social force model, and an improved social force model with emotional factors is constructed. The simulation platform of group behavior is developed by using repast simulation toolkit. The simulation experiment is designed on this platform to simulate the emergency evacuation of subway platform. The simulation results show that some individuals in the group have the characteristics of obedience and clustering, and the emotion has influence on the group behavior, and the behavior of the group under the influence of emotion is more irregular. At the same time, the clustering phenomenon of the actual subway station is simulated and compared. The results show that the improved model can simulate the real group behavior well, and verify the rationality of the model.
【学位授予单位】：首都经济贸易大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：B848.4

【参考文献】