“一带一路”背景下中俄自贸区建设的可行性与效应研究

发布时间：2018-01-18 05:15

本文关键词：“一带一路”背景下中俄自贸区建设的可行性与效应研究　出处：《广东财经大学》2016年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：中国和俄罗斯作为发展中的大国,虽然在国际政治舞台上起着举足轻重的作用,但却处处挚肘于美国为首的西方国家,尤其是在国际贸易游戏规则的制定上,缺乏足够的话语权。两国虽然有着二十多年稳步增长的经贸合作历程,但总体上双方的贸易规模不够大、合作的领域范围较小、层次不够深入,这不仅与双方的大国身份不符,也与两国高温的政治关系不符。中国政府提出的“一带一路”战略,旨在建设使众多国家共同受益的、世界经济发展的新格局、新秩序,符合世界经济区域一体化的发展大趋势。“一带一路”战略,为扩大中俄合作领域、深化合作项目、推进自贸区的建设,参与制定国际贸易新规则,巩固在国际上的大国地位,提供了千载难逢的机遇。因此,中俄两国政府要牢牢抓住这一战略机遇,引导双方企业界形成共识,尽快把中俄自由贸易区的建设提到制度层面上来。本文在参阅大量文献和相关资料的基础上,以自由贸易区效应理论、比较优势理论、产业内贸易理论为基础,首先介绍了中俄贸易发展的现状,指出中俄在双边贸易、双边投资、科技领域、劳务合作等方面发展的状况及出现的问题,用显性比较优势指数、贸易互补性指数、产业内贸易指数等实证分析了中俄建立自贸区的可行性;然后本文从自贸区产生的静态效应和动态效应两个方面理论分析了建立中俄自贸区的贸易效应;最后本文用贸易引力模型实证分析了建立中俄自贸区的影响因素,通过局部均衡模型对中俄建立自贸区产生的贸易效应进行模拟预测,得出了建立自由贸易区后中俄两国的贸易规模将会大幅度增长;最后综合定性与定量的研究,结合前文分析的结果,分析了当前中俄贸易中遇到的问题与障碍,针对性的提出了建立中俄自贸区的对策建议。
[Abstract]:As a developing country, China and Russia play an important role in the international political arena, but they are bound to the western countries led by the United States, especially in the formulation of the rules of the game of international trade. Although the two countries have more than 20 years of steady growth of economic and trade cooperation, but on the whole, the scale of bilateral trade is not large enough, the scope of cooperation is small, the level is not deep enough. This is not only incompatible with the status of the two countries as a great power, but also with the high temperature of political relations between the two countries. The "Belt and Road" strategy put forward by the Chinese government is aimed at building a new pattern of world economic development that benefits many countries. The new order is in line with the general trend of regional integration of the world economy. The "Belt and Road" strategy aims to expand the scope of Sino-Russian cooperation, deepen cooperation projects, promote the construction of free trade zones, and participate in the formulation of new rules for international trade. Consolidating the status of a major power in the international arena provides a golden opportunity. Therefore, the Chinese and Russian governments should firmly seize this strategic opportunity and guide the business community of both sides to form a consensus. As soon as possible, the construction of Sino-Russian free trade zone will be brought to the level of system. Based on the theory of free trade zone effect, the theory of comparative advantage and the theory of intra-industry trade, this paper refers to a large number of documents and related materials. First of all, it introduces the current situation of Sino-Russian trade development, points out the development of bilateral trade, bilateral investment, science and technology, labor cooperation and other aspects of the situation and problems, using explicit comparative advantage index. Trade complementarity index, intra-industry trade index and other empirical analysis of the feasibility of China and Russia to establish a free trade zone; Then this paper theoretically analyzes the trade effect of establishing China-Russia Free Trade Zone from two aspects: static effect and dynamic effect. Finally, this paper uses the trade gravity model to empirically analyze the factors influencing the establishment of the China-Russia free trade zone, and simulates the trade effect of the establishment of the free trade zone between China and Russia through the partial equilibrium model. It is concluded that the scale of trade between China and Russia will increase greatly after the establishment of free trade zone. In the end, the author synthesizes the qualitative and quantitative research, combined with the results of the previous analysis, analyzes the problems and obstacles encountered in the current Sino-Russian trade, and puts forward the countermeasures and suggestions for the establishment of the China-Russia Free Trade Zone.
【学位授予单位】：广东财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F752.7

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