中国对“一带一路”国家直接投资的产业选择研究

发布时间：2018-02-24 19:39

  本文关键词： 一带一路 对外直接投资 产业选择 实证研究　出处：《湖北大学》2016年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：随着经济全球化的发展,国际直接投资在经济发展中的作用日益突出,尤其是发达国家在内部产能过剩和资本趋于饱和的情况下,加大对东亚、东南亚、中亚、拉美等中低收入水平国家的投资成为国际直接投资的新趋势,美国在提出实施"新丝绸经济带"计划后,又主导签署跨太平洋伙伴关系协议(TPP),俄罗斯提出实施"欧亚经济联盟"战略。2013年,中国提出"一带一路"建设和发展战略,作为新形势下对外开放的重大战略,是中国"走出去"战略的重要组成部分,对利用国际要素资源,转移优势产能和成熟产业,加强与"一带一路"沿线国家产业分工与合作,实现合作共赢的目标具有重要的作用。对"一带一路"国家的直接投资是"一带一路"建设的核心动力,通过投资带动母国和东道国的产业发展、技术进步和经济增长。随着中国产业整体竞争力和对外投资能力提升,2014年中国已经成为资本净输出国,表明中国对外直接进入了新的阶段,面临新的形势;另一方面,"一带一路"沿线不同区域国家在地理特征、资源禀赋、经济实力、收入水平、产业基础、投资环境等方面差异明显,直接投资面临诸多挑战。因此,面对诸多因素,如何选择对外直接投资的产业,实现既有利于国内产业升级,又符合东道国产业发展需求,这正是本文研究的切入点。论文围绕中国对"一带一路"沿线国家直接投资的产业选择这一主题,在结构安排上分为七章。第一章是导论,首先分析"一带一路"战略提出的背景及我国对沿线国家直接投资面临的形势,明确研究的理论和实践意义,论文的研究价值在于深入分析影响对外直接投资产业选择的影响因素,为进一步拓展对"一带一路"直接投资提供可操作性的建议,不足之处在于涉及国家众多,数据获得有限,影响到部分研究结论的精确性;其次是文献研究,详细评述了国内外关于对外直接投资产业选择、产业升级及对"带一路" 一路投资的研究,提出论文研究的切入点;之后提出论文研究内容、研究思路及研究方法及实现路径。第二章首先对"一带一路"、对外直接投资、产业升级、产业选择等研究对象进行明确的界定,其次是介绍了对外直接投资及产业选择相关理论;而后是关于对外直接投资决策中对母国和东道国的产业选择影响因素及机理的分析,为实证分析奠定理论基础。第三章是现状研究,从地区分布、产业结构、投资环境等方面对对我国对"一带一路"沿线国家的直接投资现状、产业基础、投资环境等因素进行分析,并将"一带一路"沿线国家分为"核心区"、"扩展区"、"辐射区",分析每个区域内产业发展特征及投资产业需求。第四章和第五章是实证研究,根据实证研究基本逻辑和思路,第四章检验对外直接投资的"母国产业选择",基于2003-2014年中国和"一带一路"沿线65个国家的有关时间序列数据和钱纳里提出的"世界发展模型",检验我国对"一带一路"国家的对外直接投资的产业结构升级效应,结果显示:中国对" 一带一路"国家的投资规模扩张、对区域内重点国家的投资增长及投资国家区域内地位的提升都将有利于内部产业转移,对中国产业结构的升级的作用显著,但是这种影响效应还受到国内人口、收入水平、吸引外资量、进出口等因素的影响。第五章基于2003-2014年中国和"一带一路"沿线65个国家的面板数据,利用固定效应模型,检验中国对外直接投资产业选择与东道国市场要素、资源要素、技术要素和战略要素之间的关系,结果显示:市场要素、技术要素和战略要素与母国产业结构呈现显著的正相关关系,从影响程度看,战略要素技术要素市场要素,资源要素则不显著。第六章是定性分析,首先根据实证分析结果提出对"一带一路"投资产业选择的基准和原则,其次结合"一带一路"沿线收入因素,建立"收入水平——产业选择"机制,判断东道国投资发展阶段,从而提出投资产业选择的思路。第七章是对策分析,基于实证和定性分析的结论,针对不同的区域的国家,提出具有针对性的对外直接投资产业选择的思路和建议。
[Abstract]:With the development of economic globalization, the international direct investment in economic development plays an increasingly prominent role, especially in the developed countries in the internal capacity and capital tends to be saturated, increase in East Asia, Southeast Asia, Central Asia, Latin America and other low-income level national investment into the new trend of the international direct investment, the implementation of the "new silk in the proposed economic zone planning, leading and signed the trans Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPP), Russia proposed the implementation of" Eurasian Economic Union "strategy.2013, Chinese proposed" The Belt and Road "construction and development strategy as a major strategy under the new situation of opening to the outside world, is an important part of China" go out "the strategy, on the use of international resources, advantage transfer capacity and mature industries, and strengthen the" Belt and Road Initiative along the country's industrial division and cooperation, has an important role to achieve win-win cooperation goal " The Belt and Road "direct investment in the country is" The Belt and Road "core power construction, driven by investment home and host country's industrial development, technological progress and economic growth. With the ability to enhance the overall competitiveness of China industry and foreign investment, 2014 Chinese has become a net exporter of capital, shows that foreign direct Chinese entered a new the stage, facing the new situation; on the other hand," The Belt and Road "along the different countries in the region in the geographical features, resource endowment, economic strength, income level, industrial base, and other obvious differences of investment environment, direct investment is facing many challenges. Therefore, in the face of many factors, how to choose the foreign direct investment industry, implementation is conducive to the upgrading of domestic industries, and meet the development needs of the host country, this is the starting point of this research. Based on The Belt and Road" countries along the direct investment of Chinese industry " The choice of this topic, the structure is divided into seven chapters. The first chapter is the introduction, firstly put forward "The Belt and Road" strategic background and situation of China's direct investment to countries along the face, clear the research significance in theory and practice, the value of the research is to deeply analyze the impact factors of foreign direct investment the choice of industry, to further expand to provide feasible suggestions for direct investment "The Belt and Road, deficiencies in many countries involved, the limited data obtained, affect the accuracy of some research conclusions; the second is the literature research, a detailed review on the domestic and foreign foreign direct investment industry, industrial upgrading and research" with the way the way of investment, the starting point of the paper is proposed; then the research contents, research ideas and research methods and ways of realization. The second chapter of "The Belt and Road, foreign direct Joint investment, industrial upgrading, industrial selection of research object defined, followed by the introduction of foreign direct investment and industry choice theory; then is about the analysis on the influence factors and mechanism of the host country and the industrial choice of foreign direct investment decision-making, lay the theoretical foundation for the empirical analysis. The third chapter is the research status. From the regional distribution, industrial structure, investment environment and other aspects of our country to "The Belt and Road along the country's direct investment situation, industrial base, investment environment, factor analysis, and the" The Belt and Road along the country is divided into "core area", "extension", "radiation zone". Analysis of each regional industrial development characteristics and industrial investment demand. The fourth chapter and the fifth chapter is the empirical research, empirical research according to the basic logic and thinking, the fourth chapter is the analysis of foreign direct investment "home country", based on 2003-2014 In Chinese and Belt and Road Initiative "along the 65 countries on the time series data and Chanari's" world development model "," the test of industrial structure of our country The Belt and Road "countries of foreign direct investment and upgrading effect, results show that the Chinese of The Belt and Road" national investment scale, investment growth and investment in the region of national and regional key countries in the promotion will be conducive to the internal transfer of industry, China on the upgrading of the industrial structure effect, but this effect has also been the domestic population, income level, to attract foreign investment, import and export and other factors. The fifth chapter is based on the panel data of 2003-2014 years China and "The Belt and Road" along the 65 countries, using fixed effect model, test China industries of foreign direct investment and the host country market factors, resources, technology and strategic factors. In between The results showed that, the market factors, technical factors and strategic factors and industrial structure of the home country showed a significant positive correlation, the degree of influence, strategic factors market factors technical factors, resource factors is not significant. The sixth chapter is the qualitative analysis, according to the results of empirical analysis and the standards and principles of investment The Belt and Road "the choice of industry, followed by the combination of" The Belt and Road along the income factor, the establishment of "income level: industry selection mechanism, determine the host country investment development stage, thus put forward the choice of investment ideas. The seventh chapter is the countermeasure analysis, empirical analysis and qualitative conclusions based on different regions of the country, has put forward some ideas and suggestions of foreign direct investment industry.

【学位授予单位】：湖北大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F832.6
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本文编号：1531462