中非国际工程项目风险传导关系研究

发布时间：2018-03-17 23:14

本文选题：项目风险　切入点：风险识别　出处：《山东大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：随着中国国际影响力和竞争力的不断增加以及"走出去"、"一带一路"等国家战略的提出,我国的国际工程项目承包业务得到了飞速发展。近年来,非洲地区各个国家经济发展十分迅速,对于能源、交通、水电等基础设施有着很大需求,越来越多的中国企业选择承接非洲的工程项目。仅2016年一年,中国企业在非洲承包工程项目的合同额就接近700亿美元。随着中非之间合作的日益深化,非洲已经成为了中国对外承包的主要市场。由于非洲特殊的政治、经济、自然环境以及复杂的历史文化,项目在实施过程中可能遇到比其他国际工程项目更多的风险,因此对风险的有效管理在中非国际工程项目中十分关键。目前,我国企业在已经逐渐重视起对中非项目风险的管控,但大多仍停留在对风险因素本身的权重或风险水平的评价上,对于风险之间的莠联关系和传导路径的研究还十分匮乏。风险传导关系是对于风险产生和传播的阐释,对于风险的预测和防范具有重要的作用,是风险管理中十分重要的依据。本文针对中非国际工程项目各个风险因素之间的传导关系进行研究,主要内容包括以下三个部分:第一部分内容包括本文的第1章和第2章,主要分析我国中非国际工程项目的发展现状及其在实践、理论研究方面还存在的问题,在此基础上提出了本文的研究问题,即如何识别中非国际工程项目风险以及探究风险因素之间的传导关系。针对以上研究问题,对现有的相关文献进行了梳理,为后续研究提供了理论依据与支持。第二部分为文章重点,包括本文第3章和第4章,主要内容是识别中非国际工程项目存在风险及构建风险传导关系模型。第一,基于对以往文献的筛选和总结,对一般国际工程项目包含的风险因素进行梳理;第二,结合非洲环境特点及中国企业在非洲工程项目面临问题,通过德尔菲法对中非国际工程项目风险进行了再次识别;第三,基于解释结构模型法分析风险因素之间的传导关系和风险层次,并最终构建风险传导解释结构模型。第三部分内容包括本文的第5章和第6章,根据所构建的风险传导关系模型,对风险类型进行划分,并结合非洲具体情况提出风险管理策略,最后对文章结论进行了总结,提出了研究的不足之处以及对后续研究的思考。通过上述三个部分内容的研究,本文对中非国际工程项目风险因素传导关系进行了探讨,证明了中非国际工程项目风险之间有明确的关联关系与传导路径,并根据风险模型提出了相应的风险管理对策,弥补了现有风险分析方法仅通过风险权重对风险进行管理的缺陷。本研究能够为中非国际工程项目风险管理提供新的研究思路,为项目管理者对此类项目风险的评估、分析和管控提供参考。
[Abstract]:With the continuous increase of China's international influence and competitiveness, as well as the "going out" and "Belt and Road" and other national strategies, China's international project contracting business has been rapidly developed in recent years. The economies of various countries in Africa are developing very rapidly, and there is a great demand for energy, transportation, hydropower and other infrastructure facilities. More and more Chinese enterprises choose to undertake engineering projects in Africa. In 2016, only one year, With the deepening cooperation between China and Africa, Africa has become the main market for Chinese foreign contracting. Due to the special politics and economy of Africa, Because of the natural environment and the complex history and culture, the project may encounter more risks than other international engineering projects, so the effective management of the risk is very important in the China-Africa international engineering project. Chinese enterprises have paid more and more attention to the control of project risk in Central Africa, but most of them still remain in the evaluation of the weight of risk factors themselves or the level of risk. The study of the relationship between risks and the transmission path is still very scarce. The risk conduction relation is the interpretation of risk generation and transmission, and plays an important role in risk prediction and prevention. It is a very important basis in risk management. This paper studies the conduction relationship between various risk factors of China-Africa international engineering projects. The main contents include the following three parts: the first part includes chapter 1 and chapter 2 of this paper. Based on the analysis of the current situation and the problems in practice and theoretical research of China's non-African international engineering projects, the paper puts forward the research problems in this paper. That is, how to identify the non-international project risk and explore the transmission relationship between risk factors. The second part is the focus of the article, including the third and fourth chapters, the main content is to identify the non-international project risk and build the risk conduction relationship model. Based on the screening and summing up of the previous literatures, this paper combs the risk factors contained in general international engineering projects. Secondly, combining the characteristics of African environment and the problems faced by Chinese enterprises in African engineering projects, The risk of China-Africa international engineering project is recognized again by Delphi method. Thirdly, based on the method of explanatory structure model, the conduction relationship and risk level between risk factors are analyzed. The third part includes chapter 5 and chapter 6 of this paper, according to the risk conduction relationship model, the risk types are divided. And put forward the risk management strategy according to the specific situation in Africa, finally summarize the conclusion of the article, put forward the deficiency of the research and the thinking of the follow-up research. Through the research of the above three parts, This paper probes into the transmission relationship of risk factors between China and Africa international engineering projects, proves that there is a clear correlation relationship and conduction path between the risks of China and Africa international engineering projects, and puts forward the corresponding risk management countermeasures according to the risk model. This research can provide a new research idea for the risk management of international engineering projects in China and Africa, and provide a new way for project managers to evaluate the risk of such projects. Analysis and management to provide reference.
【学位授予单位】：山东大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F752.68

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