中国对西亚五国出口持续时间及影响因素研究

发布时间：2018-03-19 19:47

本文选题：西亚五国　切入点：出口持续时间　出处：《东华大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：传统的国际贸易理论隐含了贸易关系一旦建立就会持续发展下去的假设,但事实上实际开展贸易时,贸易通常是不稳定的。由于经典贸易理论忽略了贸易持续时间的作用,因而越来越多的国内外学者开始研究贸易持续时间的特征及规律。本文立足于“一带一路”的时代背景,对比分析了沿线国家的经贸特征及研究现状,最终选定西亚五国(阿联酋、沙特阿拉伯、伊朗、土耳其、以色列)作为本文的研究对象。本文采用CEPII-BACI数据库2002-2014年中国出口西亚五国的HS6分位产品数据,运用非参数K-M生存分析法和离散时间Cloglog模型来研究中国对西亚五国的出口持续时间及影响因素。生存分析法的研究结果表明,中国产品对西亚各国的出口持续时间普遍较短;中国对各国的出口都存在多个贸易时间段,即有频繁的进入和退出;初始贸易额对中国出口西亚五国的贸易持续时间影响极大;在贸易关系建立的初期,出口持续时间相对较短。同时,中国对西亚五国整体的出口持续时间也很短,其出口持续时间的平均数为3.6936年,中位数为2年;生存率大于等于1年的概率为58.59%,大于等于10年的概率仅为8.37%;而一年的风险率为41.41%,10年的风险率为31.45%。总体的生存函数估计结果表明,贸易关系具有负的时间依赖性,在贸易联系建立的初期风险急剧上升,而随着时间推移变动的幅度越来越小;基于初始贸易值的生存函数估计结果表明,中国对西亚五国出口产品的初始贸易值越高,则出口产品生存率越高;基于人均国民收入水平的生存函数估计表明,出口目的国的收入水平越高,出口持续时间越长久;基于产品要素禀赋的生存函数估计表明,劳动密集型产品的生存率最高,资本密集型产品次之,资源密集型产品最低。因此,相对于建立新的贸易关系,维持现有的贸易关系并延长出口持续时间更为重要。通过离散时间Cloglog模型研究发现,目的国GDP总量越大、目的国人均消费能力越高、目的国人口总量越多、双边贸易额越高、初始贸易额越大,则中国对其出口持续时间越长;而目的国与中国的空间距离越远、目的国为WTO成员、目的国国家风险越大,则中国对其出口贸易持续时间越短。从提高中国对西亚五国出口贸易持续时间的角度出发,本文提出了以下几点政策建议:有针对性地选择贸易伙伴;尽可能提高与出口目的国初次贸易额;增加劳动密集型产品的出口;加快推进“一带一路”建设,加强与西亚五国的海陆交通设施建设;对目的国的国家风险进行预警;建立忧患意识,采取各种衍生金融工具来规避风险。
[Abstract]:The traditional international trade theory implies the assumption that the trade relationship will continue to develop once it is established, but in fact, trade is usually unstable when the trade is actually carried out, because the classical trade theory neglects the role of trade duration. As a result, more and more scholars at home and abroad began to study the characteristics and laws of trade duration. This paper, based on the background of Belt and Road, contrasts and analyzes the economic and trade characteristics and research status of the countries along the route. Finally, five Western Asian countries (UAE, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Turkey, Israel) are selected as the object of this study. This paper uses CEPII-BACI database to export HS6 quantile products from China to the five Western Asian countries from 2002 to 2014. Non-parametric K-M survival analysis and discrete time Cloglog model are used to study the duration of China's exports to the five West Asian countries and the influencing factors. The results of the survival analysis show that the duration of Chinese exports to the West Asian countries is generally short. There are many trade periods for China's exports to various countries, that is, frequent entry and exit; initial trade volume has a great impact on the duration of trade between China and the five West Asian countries; in the early stage of the establishment of trade relations, At the same time, the duration of China's exports to the five West Asian countries as a whole was also very short, with an average export duration of 3.6936 years, with a median of 2 years. The probability of survival greater than one year is 58.59, and the probability of more than 10 years is only 8.370.The risk rate of one year is 41.41 and the risk rate of 10 years is 31.45.The overall survival function estimate shows that the trade relationship has a negative time dependence. The initial risks of the establishment of trade linkages have risen sharply and the changes have become smaller and smaller over time; estimates of the survival function based on the initial trade value show that the higher the initial trade value of China's exports to the five Western Asian countries, The survival rate of export products is higher; the survival function estimation based on per capita national income level shows that the higher the income level of the destination country is, the longer the export duration is; the survival function estimate based on product factor endowment shows that, Labor-intensive products have the highest survival rate, capital-intensive products take second place, and resource-intensive products have the lowest survival rates. It is more important to maintain the existing trade relationship and prolong the export duration. Through the discrete time Cloglog model, it is found that the larger the total GDP of the destination country is, the higher the per capita consumption power of the destination country is, the more the population of the destination country is, the higher the bilateral trade volume is. The larger the initial trade volume, the longer the duration of China's exports to China, and the further the distance between the destination country and China, the more the destination country is a member of WTO, and the greater the risk of the destination country is. From the point of view of increasing the duration of China's export trade to the five West Asian countries, this paper puts forward the following policy suggestions: to select trade partners in a targeted manner; To increase the initial trade volume with the exporting countries as much as possible; to increase the export of labor-intensive products; to speed up the construction of "Belt and Road"; to strengthen the construction of sea and land transport facilities with the five West Asian countries; to give early warning to the national risks of the destination countries; To establish a sense of distress and adopt various derivative financial instruments to avoid risk.
【学位授予单位】：东华大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F752.62

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