中国对海上新丝路沿线国家出口增长的来源分析——基于CMS模型的需求效应、结构效应和竞争力效应分解

发布时间：2018-03-24 17:16

本文选题：一带一路　切入点：世纪海上丝绸之路　出处：《西部论坛》2017年01期

【摘要】："一带一路"建设促进了中国对沿线国家的贸易发展。采用2001—2015年中国对"21世纪海上丝绸之路"沿线33个国家出口前十类商品的出口数据,运用CMS模型进行分航段(东南亚航段、南亚及波斯湾航段、红海湾及印度洋西岸航段)和分阶段(国际金融危机前后)的出口增长来源分解,分析表明:在出口规模不断扩大过程中,出口结构发生较大变化;产品竞争力效应占主导地位但贡献度出现下降,市场需求效应的促进作用较弱但有增强趋势,而商品结构效应阻碍出口但作用微弱。中国出口商品结构与进口国需求结构存在供需错位,一定程度抑制了出口增长。应在培育主要出口产品综合竞争优势的同时,积极适应市场需求变化,优化出口商品结构;并大力推进"一带一路"建设,促进沿线国家经济发展,提升贸易便利化水平。
[Abstract]:The construction of "Belt and Road" has promoted the development of China's trade with the countries along the route. Using the data of China's exports to the top 10 categories of commodities exported by 33 countries along the "21st Century Maritime Silk Road" from 2001 to 2015, the CMS model is used to carry out the segmenting (Southeast Asia segment). The sources of export growth in South Asia and Persian Gulf, Red Bay and West Coast of Indian Ocean) and in stages (before and after the international financial crisis) are decomposed. The analysis shows that the export structure changes greatly in the process of expanding export scale; The competitive effect of product is dominant but the contribution degree is decreasing, the promotion effect of market demand effect is weak but has the tendency of strengthening. However, the structure effect of commodities hinders export, but the effect is weak. The structure of China's export commodities and the demand structure of importing countries have mismatch between supply and demand, which restrain export growth to a certain extent. At the same time, we should cultivate the comprehensive competitive advantage of main export products, at the same time, We will actively adapt to changes in market demand, optimize the structure of export commodities, and vigorously promote the construction of "Belt and Road" to promote the economic development of countries along the route and enhance the level of trade facilitation.
【作者单位】：广东外语外贸大学国际经济贸易研究中心;
【基金】：教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目(16JZD018)
【分类号】：F752.62

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