西北地区社会经济脆弱性综合评价

发布时间：2018-05-15 22:45

本文选题：西北地区 + 社会经济脆弱性　；参考：《新疆大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：在国家推进西部大开发战略与“一带一路”战略的大环境下,促使西北地区社会经济发展迅速提高,同时也存在着区域经济水平不平衡现状。这种不平衡严重影响了区域的社会经济健康发展与安全稳定,通过构建社会经济脆弱性综合评价模型能够量化分析其社会经济发展程度,并且结合社会经济脆弱性空间分布图,能够加强国家宏观经济调控,促使西北地区社会经济健康持续发展。本文利用2004-2013年社会经济发展指标和灯光指数数据,建立社会经济脆弱性评价体系,运用主成分分析方法、Geoda和GIS空间分析等多种手段,评价近10年来西北地区各省社会经济发展,且讨论县域社会经济脆弱性空间分布,提供相应的改善建议。主要研究成果如下:首先,从各省的社会经济脆弱性指数得分来看,西北地区各省社会经济发展整体上表现出地级市水平大于县级市。近10年来,陕西省社会经济实力居西北地区首位,且整体呈上升趋势,甘肃省、青海省和宁夏回族自治区的社会经济发展水平较低,新疆北疆社会经济程度总体大于南疆。其次,从社会经济脆弱性时间序列演变上来看,地级市和县级区域极差从2004年17.317、6.504,到2013年的28.408、11.095,表示西北地区社会经济脆弱性极化现象增强。近10年相对差异变化情况,显示县级区域的社会经济脆弱性差异性增大,地级市则表现较为平稳。再次,从社会经济脆弱性空间格局上考虑,(1)2004年到2013年相对变化分析可知,西北地区县域社会经济水平总体呈上升趋势。(2)将脆弱性指数得分按标准差等级划分,较低以下社会经济水平研究单元占整个研究区的85%,中等占比为10%,较高和高占比为5%,可以看出区域社会经济水平差异性显著,呈金字塔结构。(3)在空间分布上,西北地区社会经济发展以西安、兰州、乌鲁木齐为核心,呈“三核”形态结构,并对周边区域有较大的正向辐射效应和极化效应。(4)莫兰指数从2004年的0.046到2013年的0.202,呈上升趋势,县域社会经济脆弱性聚集现象越来越明显。莫兰指数散点图反映了近10年来四种空间类型空间分布上有所变化,但县域间的社会经济相互联系还是相对较差,低低区域占整个研究单元的47%以上,西北地区经济增长缓慢。然后,从西北地区社会经济脆弱性类型区划分来看:西北地区社会经济脆弱性LISA图和热冷点区图,可知社会经济发展水平较高的地区主要以经济区、省会城市、特殊资源城市为中心分布,而社会经济发展水平相对缓慢的地区则主要集中新疆西南部、青海和甘肃的大部分地区,具有显著的聚集现象,且多数长期保持稳定。最后,本文提出从国家引导政策和经济区位优势、优化产业结构,促进产业升级与整合、加强基础设施建设、提高区域人口资本和完善保护生态环境政策方面,改善西北地区社会经济脆弱性提供参考建议。
[Abstract]:Under the circumstances of the national strategy of promoting the development of the western region and the strategy of "Belt and Road", the social and economic development in the northwest region has been promoted rapidly, and at the same time, there is an unbalanced situation of the regional economic level. This imbalance has seriously affected the healthy development of social economy and safety and stability of the region. By constructing a comprehensive evaluation model of social and economic vulnerability, the degree of social and economic development can be quantitatively analyzed, and the spatial distribution map of social and economic vulnerability can be combined. Can strengthen the national macroeconomic regulation and control, promote the northwest region social and economic healthy and sustainable development. Based on the data of social and economic development index and light index from 2004 to 2013, this paper sets up a social and economic vulnerability assessment system, and uses principal component analysis (PCA) and GIS spatial analysis to evaluate the social and economic development of provinces in Northwest China in the past 10 years. The spatial distribution of social and economic vulnerability in county area is discussed, and corresponding suggestions for improvement are provided. The main research results are as follows: firstly, from the score of socio-economic vulnerability index, the social and economic development of northwest provinces shows that the level of prefecture-level cities is higher than that of county-level cities. In the last 10 years, the social and economic strength of Shaanxi Province ranks first in the Northwest region, and the overall trend is rising. The level of social and economic development in Gansu Province, Qinghai Province and Ningxia Hui Autonomous region is relatively low, and the social and economic level in Northern Xinjiang is generally higher than that in South Xinjiang. Secondly, from the point of view of the evolution of the time series of social and economic vulnerability, the regional difference between prefecture-level cities and county-level regions ranged from 17.3176.504 in 2004 to 28.408 (11.095) in 2013, indicating that the polarization of socio-economic vulnerability in Northwest China was enhanced. The change of relative difference in recent 10 years shows that the difference of social and economic vulnerability of county-level regions is increasing, while that of prefecture-level cities is relatively stable. Thirdly, considering the spatial pattern of social and economic vulnerability, the analysis of relative changes from 2004 to 2013 shows that the overall social and economic level of counties in Northwest China shows an upward trend. (2) the vulnerability index score is classified by standard deviation grade. The lower and lower socio-economic level research units account for 85% of the whole research area, the middle proportion is 10%, and the higher and higher share ratio is 5%. It can be seen that the difference of the regional social and economic level is significant, with a pyramid structure. The social and economic development in northwest China is characterized by the core of Xi'an, Lanzhou and Urumqi, with a "three-nucleus" structure and a larger positive radiation effect and polarization effect on the surrounding region.) the Moran index increases from 0.046 in 2004 to 0.202 in 2013. The phenomenon of social and economic fragility aggregation in county area is more and more obvious. Moran index scatter plot shows that the spatial distribution of the four spatial types has changed in the past 10 years, but the social and economic relationship among counties is still relatively poor, the low region accounts for more than 47% of the whole research unit, and the economic growth in the northwest region is slow. Then, according to the classification of social and economic vulnerability in Northwest China, the LISA map of social and economic vulnerability and the map of hot and cold zone show that the regions with higher level of social and economic development are mainly economic zones and provincial capitals. The special resource cities are the center of distribution, while the areas with relatively slow social and economic development level are mainly concentrated in southwest Xinjiang, Qinghai and most areas of Gansu Province, with remarkable aggregation phenomenon, and most of them remain stable for a long time. Finally, this paper proposes to optimize industrial structure, promote industrial upgrading and integration, strengthen infrastructure construction, improve regional population capital and improve ecological environment protection policy from national guiding policies and economic location advantages. To improve the social and economic vulnerability of the northwest region to provide reference suggestions.
【学位授予单位】：新疆大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F127

【参考文献】