中国与“一带一路”沿线地区的贸易潜力研究

发布时间：2018-05-20 07:58

本文选题：随机前沿引力模型 + 异质性　；参考：《国际贸易问题》2017年07期

【摘要】：本文基于真实效应的随机前沿引力模型,从进口和出口两方面实证分析了中国与"一带一路"沿线地区的贸易潜力及其影响因素。研究结果表明:2002-2015年间中国与"一带一路"沿线地区的贸易效率波动性较大,国际金融危机导致近年来的贸易效率趋于下降,对进口贸易的影响更加严重;中国与中亚及独联体地区的贸易效率相对较低,但贸易潜力相对较大;"一带一路"沿线地区在政府治理能力和贸易便利程度方面的缺陷抑制了双边贸易效率,中国积极推进自由贸易协定谈判和扩大对外直接投资,有助于提升贸易效率和实现贸易潜力。
[Abstract]:Based on the stochastic frontier gravitation model of real effect, this paper empirically analyzes the trade potential and its influencing factors between China and the areas along "Belt and Road" from the aspects of import and export. The results show that the trade efficiency between China and the "Belt and Road" area is fluctuating from 2002 to 2015. The international financial crisis has led to the decline of trade efficiency in recent years, and the impact on import trade is more serious. China's trade efficiency with Central Asia and the CIS region is relatively low, but the trade potential is relatively large. China has actively promoted free trade agreement negotiations and expanded foreign direct investment, which will help enhance trade efficiency and realize trade potential.
【作者单位】：上海立信会计金融学院国际经贸学院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金项目“全球价值链变迁与中国对外经济发展方式转变”(14BJL053)
【分类号】：F752.7

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