中国对“一带一路”沿线国家直接投资的风险研究
发布时间：2018-07-18 15:10
【摘要】：2013年“丝绸之路经济带”和“21世纪海上丝绸之路”的概念首次提出,“一带一路”成为二十一世纪最热门的话题之一。随着“一带一路”进程的逐步推进,“一带一路”倡议将会给沿线许多国家的经济发展史留下浓墨重彩的一笔。在这一背景下,中国企业也加快走去出的步伐,加大对“一带一路”沿线国家的投资,中国的对外直接投资进程进入到快速发展阶段。自“一带一路”倡议提出以来,国内学术界围绕“一带一路”进行了较多的讨论分析。早期关于“一带一路”的研究,多集中于论证“一带一路”倡议带给我国的机遇,如促进了中国的对外直接投资、产业结构升级以及人民币国际化等,然而随着“一带一路”倡议的进一步推进,识别中国对“一带一路”沿线国家直接投资过程中面临的各种风险已经变得越来重要。充分了解中国对“一带一路”沿线各国直接投资可能面临的各种风险,将有利于中国对“一带一路”沿线国家直接投资的区位选择,将有利于把直接投资风险防范于未然,这也是本文的写作目的所在。本文总共五章,分为三部分:第一部分包括第一章绪论和第二章中国对“一带一路”沿线国家直接投资的现状。这一部分首先归纳总结前人对对外直接投资过程中面临的各类风险、风险的度量以及风险控制的研究成果。其次,从基本格局、地区分布、行业分布、投资主体等不同角度分析了中国对“一带一路”沿线国家直接投资的现状。第一部分为本文之后的写作奠定基础。第二部分包括第三章中国对“一带一路”沿线国家直接投资风险分析和第四章中国对“一带一路”沿线国家直接投资风险的实证研究。第二部分是本文的核心,首先根据“一带一路”沿线各国的实际情况对沿线国家的直接投资风险进行定性研究。在此基础上采用因子分析方法对“一带一路”沿线64个国家的政治风险、经济风险和总体的直接投资风险进行实证研究,得出“一带一路”沿线64个国家各风险相对大小的排序。第三部分包括第五章结论及政策建议。在对全文的研究分析进行总结的基础上,对中国对“一带一路”沿线国家进行直接投资过程中面临的风险提出相应的政策建议。文章在分析了中国对“一带一路”沿线国家直接投资现状的基础上,研究了中国对“一带一路”沿线国家直接投资的各类风险,并对两大类风险及总体的风险水平进行了定量分析,同时提出了相应的应对策略。对沿线64个国家各风险的比较,将为中国的对外直接投资提供参考依据。
[Abstract]:In 2013, the concepts of "Silk Road Economic Belt" and "21st Century Maritime Silk Road" were first proposed, and "Belt and Road" became one of the hottest topics in the 21 century. With the gradual development of Belt and Road, the Belt and Road initiative will leave a great deal of light in the history of economic development of many countries along the route. Under this background, Chinese enterprises have also stepped up the pace of going out, increasing their investment in countries along the "Belt and Road", and the process of China's foreign direct investment has entered a stage of rapid development. Since the "Belt and Road" initiative was put forward, the domestic academic circles have carried on more discussion and analysis around "Belt and Road". Early studies on "Belt and Road" focused on the opportunities that the "Belt and Road" initiative had brought to China, such as promoting China's foreign direct investment, upgrading its industrial structure, and internationalizing the renminbi. However, with the further development of the "Belt and Road" initiative, it has become increasingly important to identify the risks faced by China in its direct investment process in countries along the "Belt and Road" route. To fully understand the various risks that China may face in direct investment in countries along "Belt and Road" will be conducive to the location choice of China's direct investment in countries along "Belt and Road", and will be conducive to preventing the risk of direct investment from occurring in the first place. This is also the purpose of this paper. This paper consists of five chapters: the first part includes the introduction of the first chapter and the second chapter is the current situation of China's direct investment in the countries along "Belt and Road". In this part, the author first summarizes the research results of various kinds of risks, risk measurement and risk control in the process of foreign direct investment (OFDI). Secondly, this paper analyzes the current situation of China's direct investment in the countries along the Belt and Road from the basic pattern, regional distribution, industry distribution, investment main body and other different angles. The first part lays the foundation for the later writing. The second part includes the third chapter China's direct investment risk analysis of the countries along the "Belt and Road" and the fourth chapter the empirical study of China's direct investment risk along "Belt and Road" countries. The second part is the core of this paper. Firstly, according to the actual situation of the countries along the "Belt and Road", the risk of direct investment in the countries along the route is qualitatively studied. On the basis of this, an empirical study on the political risk, economic risk and overall direct investment risk of 64 countries along "Belt and Road" is carried out by using factor analysis method. The ranking of the relative size of each risk in 64 countries along the "Belt and Road" is obtained. The third part includes chapter five conclusions and policy recommendations. On the basis of summarizing the research and analysis of the full text, this paper puts forward corresponding policy suggestions on the risks that China faces in the process of direct investment in countries along "Belt and Road". On the basis of analyzing the current situation of China's direct investment in countries along "Belt and Road", this paper studies the risks of China's direct investment in countries along "Belt and Road". The two kinds of risks and the overall risk level are analyzed quantitatively, and the corresponding countermeasures are put forward. A comparison of the risks in 64 countries along the route will provide a reference for China's foreign direct investment (OFDI).
【学位授予单位】：吉林大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F125
本文编号：2132295
[Abstract]:In 2013, the concepts of "Silk Road Economic Belt" and "21st Century Maritime Silk Road" were first proposed, and "Belt and Road" became one of the hottest topics in the 21 century. With the gradual development of Belt and Road, the Belt and Road initiative will leave a great deal of light in the history of economic development of many countries along the route. Under this background, Chinese enterprises have also stepped up the pace of going out, increasing their investment in countries along the "Belt and Road", and the process of China's foreign direct investment has entered a stage of rapid development. Since the "Belt and Road" initiative was put forward, the domestic academic circles have carried on more discussion and analysis around "Belt and Road". Early studies on "Belt and Road" focused on the opportunities that the "Belt and Road" initiative had brought to China, such as promoting China's foreign direct investment, upgrading its industrial structure, and internationalizing the renminbi. However, with the further development of the "Belt and Road" initiative, it has become increasingly important to identify the risks faced by China in its direct investment process in countries along the "Belt and Road" route. To fully understand the various risks that China may face in direct investment in countries along "Belt and Road" will be conducive to the location choice of China's direct investment in countries along "Belt and Road", and will be conducive to preventing the risk of direct investment from occurring in the first place. This is also the purpose of this paper. This paper consists of five chapters: the first part includes the introduction of the first chapter and the second chapter is the current situation of China's direct investment in the countries along "Belt and Road". In this part, the author first summarizes the research results of various kinds of risks, risk measurement and risk control in the process of foreign direct investment (OFDI). Secondly, this paper analyzes the current situation of China's direct investment in the countries along the Belt and Road from the basic pattern, regional distribution, industry distribution, investment main body and other different angles. The first part lays the foundation for the later writing. The second part includes the third chapter China's direct investment risk analysis of the countries along the "Belt and Road" and the fourth chapter the empirical study of China's direct investment risk along "Belt and Road" countries. The second part is the core of this paper. Firstly, according to the actual situation of the countries along the "Belt and Road", the risk of direct investment in the countries along the route is qualitatively studied. On the basis of this, an empirical study on the political risk, economic risk and overall direct investment risk of 64 countries along "Belt and Road" is carried out by using factor analysis method. The ranking of the relative size of each risk in 64 countries along the "Belt and Road" is obtained. The third part includes chapter five conclusions and policy recommendations. On the basis of summarizing the research and analysis of the full text, this paper puts forward corresponding policy suggestions on the risks that China faces in the process of direct investment in countries along "Belt and Road". On the basis of analyzing the current situation of China's direct investment in countries along "Belt and Road", this paper studies the risks of China's direct investment in countries along "Belt and Road". The two kinds of risks and the overall risk level are analyzed quantitatively, and the corresponding countermeasures are put forward. A comparison of the risks in 64 countries along the route will provide a reference for China's foreign direct investment (OFDI).
【学位授予单位】：吉林大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F125
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