基于logistic方程的京津冀制造业与物流业共生发展稳定性研究

发布时间：2018-11-14 10:59

【摘要】：京津冀一体化发展被提升到重大国家战略的高度。2010年国家“十二五规划”明确提出要将“京津冀区域一体化”和建设“首都经济圈”列为国家级区域发展战略。2014年中央经济工作会议中,“京津冀协同发展”与“一带一路”、“长江经济带”一并成为国家的三大区域发展战略。根据习近平总书记提出的七点要求,京津冀一体化发展的第一要求是明确地区内的产业功能定位和分工,可以说,产业结构调整才是京津冀地区合作发展的重点。因此,京津冀一体化发展将对京津冀地区制造业和物流业产业及相关产业的发展产生重大影响,继而对制造业与物流业的共生发展产生较大影响。本文对一体化下京津冀制造业与物流业的共生发展进行分析,然后考虑京津冀一体化发展的环境变化,建立共生发展模型,最后对两业共生发展的稳定性进行分析进而得出结论,并据结论提出实施建议。本文主要包括以下内容:首先,本文在深入了解京津冀一体化发展各项政策及规划,以及制造业与物流业共生发展现有研究的基础上,对京津冀制造业种群、物流业种群以及制造业物流种群和制造业与物流业环境容量进行概念界定,然后对京津冀一体化背景下制造业与物流业的种群生长的特点进行较为深入的分析。其次,本文根据共生理论和区域产业混合联动理论以及共生环境的分析等,分析建立了京津冀一体化背景下制造业与物流业的共生发展机制,包括框架机制和系统机制,利用系统动力学基本方法对系统机制进行分析,建立因果关系图,并进行具体分析,得出一体化下影响两业共生发展的共生和环境作用因素。最后,利用logistic方程,以京津冀制造业与物流业共生发展的初始模型为基础,将两业共生发展影响因素中的环境作用因素定量反映到初始共生发展模型中,得到新的共生发展模型的稳定点及稳定条件,同时明确共生发展稳定性的影响因素。最后就共生预测稳定点与各因素之间的影响关系进行分析,得出京津冀一体化下共生稳定发展的具体影响结论并提出相关实施建议。
[Abstract]:The development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei integration has been raised to the height of major national strategy. The "12th Five-Year Plan" of 2010 clearly proposed that "Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei regional integration" and the construction of "Capital Economic Circle" should be listed as the national regional development strategy. . at the 2014 Central Economic work Conference, "Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei coordinated development", "Belt and Road" and "Yangtze economic belt" have become the three regional development strategies of our country. According to General Secretary Xi Jinping's seven-point demand, the first requirement for the integration of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei is to define the industrial function and division of labor in the region. It can be said that the adjustment of the industrial structure is the focus of the cooperation and development of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. Therefore, the development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei integration will have a great impact on the development of manufacturing industry, logistics industry and related industries in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, and then on the symbiotic development of manufacturing industry and logistics industry. This paper analyzes the symbiotic development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei manufacturing industry and logistics industry under integration, and then establishes a symbiotic development model considering the environmental changes of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei integration development. Finally, the stability of symbiotic development of the two industries is analyzed and conclusions are drawn, and suggestions for implementation are put forward. The main contents of this paper are as follows: firstly, on the basis of in-depth understanding of the policies and plans for the integrated development of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei, as well as the existing research on the symbiotic development of manufacturing industry and logistics industry, this paper analyzes the manufacturing industry population of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei. The concept of logistics population, manufacturing logistics population and environmental capacity of manufacturing industry and logistics industry are defined, and then the characteristics of population growth of manufacturing industry and logistics industry under the background of integration of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei are analyzed deeply. Secondly, based on the symbiotic theory, the regional industrial mixed linkage theory and the analysis of symbiotic environment, this paper analyzes and establishes the symbiotic development mechanism of manufacturing industry and logistics industry under the background of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei integration, including the frame mechanism and the system mechanism. The basic method of system dynamics is used to analyze the mechanism of the system, and the causality diagram is established, and the concrete analysis is carried out, and the symbiotic and environmental factors affecting the symbiotic development of the two industries under the integration are obtained. Finally, based on the initial model of the symbiotic development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei manufacturing industry and logistics industry, the environmental factors of the two industry symbiotic development factors are quantitatively reflected in the initial symbiotic development model by using logistic equation. The stability points and conditions of the new symbiotic development model are obtained, and the influencing factors of the stability of symbiotic development are defined. Finally, the influence relationship between the stability point of symbiotic prediction and the factors is analyzed, and the concrete conclusions of the symbiotic and stable development under the integration of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei are drawn and the relevant implementation suggestions are put forward.
【学位授予单位】：北京交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F427;F259.27

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