小流域雨型对山洪灾害临界雨量的影响研究

发布时间：2018-06-08 08:02

本文选题：山洪灾害 + 暴雨时空特征　；参考：《郑州大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：目前,山洪预警系统已经广泛应用到我国大部分省(市),临界雨量是进行山洪预警的重要指标。在山洪灾害分析计算中,设计雨型是产汇流计算中常用参数,使用不同的雨型,将明显影响到设计洪峰等成果,导致临界雨量成果产生变化。现行分析计算中,设计雨型常使用图集、水文手册中根据大中流域资料推求的雨型,该雨型能否适应于小流域推求临界雨量?此外,全球气候不断变暖,极端暴雨事件常有发生,图集雨型推求的临界雨量能否满足极端降雨形成灾害的预警精度要求?为解决以上问题,论文以河南省裴河小流域典型防灾对象为实例,根据小流域暴雨洪水资料,在深入分析小流域综合雨型和产汇流方案合理性的基础上,开展不同雨型对山洪灾害临界雨量的影响研究,对指导山洪灾害实时预警具有重要意义。论文主要研究内容和成果如下:(1)根据河南省新县裴河水文站32年实测降雨资料,详细分析了该水文站所在小流域暴雨时空分布特征。结果表明,研究区小流域实际降雨过程常出现双峰雨型降雨,与《河南省中小流域设计暴雨洪水图集》(84图集)推荐的单峰雨型存在差异。(2)根据长期实测降雨资料,采用PC雨型法和同频率分析雨型法,推求了裴河小流域常见的短历时设计雨型,并根据当地近期极端实测降雨资料,推求极端降雨雨型。结果表明,推求的雨型为双峰雨型,与该小流域暴雨时空分布特征相似,PC法推求的雨型,最大雨峰靠后,同频率分析法及近期极端暴雨推求的雨型,最大雨峰靠前。(3)根据裴河流域长系列降雨洪水配套资料,对本文设计洪水和临界雨量推求中所采用的产汇流计算方法及参数进行了合理性分析。结果表明,《河南省中小流域设计暴雨洪水图集》(84图集)中山丘区降雨径流关系曲线Ⅰ线适用于研究区小流域;采用国家下发的工作地图中提供的标准化单位线进行汇流计算,与实际洪水的洪峰较为接近,该产汇流方案适用于本研究区。(4)采用降雨径流关系曲线插值法推求不同雨型对应的临界雨量,分析雨型对临界雨量的影响程度。结果表明,预警时段为1h和2h推算的临界雨量,由于历时较短,与图集中雨型推求的临界雨量相差不大;预警时段为3h推算的临界雨量,与图集中雨型推求的临界雨量相差较大,误差在5%~25%之间;预警时段为6h的预警时段,由于出现双峰雨型,与图集中雨型推求的临界雨量具有明显差别,误差在10%~50%之间。可知,根据图集雨型推求的雨型并不能完全适应于小流域,雨型的不同对于临界雨量具有较大影响,山洪灾害预警作业中,应根据近期天气预报信息,预测可能出现的雨型,在此基础上,合理选择预警指标,准确发布预警指令。本文的研究内容及结果,可为山洪临界雨量的计算补充实际及理论研究支撑,使预警更加精细化、多样化,同时对于实际山洪预警工作具有参考价值。
[Abstract]:At present, mountain flood warning system has been widely used in most provinces (cities and cities) in China, critical rainfall is an important index for early warning of mountain torrents. In the analysis and calculation of mountain torrents, the design rain type is a commonly used parameter in the calculation of runoff yield and confluence. The use of different rain patterns will obviously affect the results of design Hong Feng and lead to the change of critical rainfall results. In the current analysis and calculation, the design rain pattern is often used in the atlas, and the rainfall pattern derived from the data of the large and medium basins in the hydrological manual is suitable for the calculation of critical rainfall in small watersheds. In addition, the global climate is warming and extreme rainstorm events often occur. Can the critical rainfall calculated by atlas can meet the requirement of warning accuracy of extreme rainfall formation disasters? In order to solve the above problems, taking the typical disaster prevention object of Pei River watershed in Henan Province as an example, based on the rainstorm and flood data of small watershed, the rationality of integrated rain pattern and runoff production and confluence scheme of small watershed is deeply analyzed. It is of great significance to study the influence of different rain patterns on the critical rainfall of mountain torrents and to guide the real time early warning of mountain torrents. The main contents and results of this paper are as follows: (1) based on the 32 year rainfall data of Peihe Hydrological Station in Xinxian County, Henan Province, the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of rainstorm in the small watershed of the hydrologic station are analyzed in detail. The results show that bimodal rainfall often occurs in the actual rainfall process of the small watershed in the study area, which is different from the single peak rain pattern recommended by the "Design rainstorm Flood Atlas of the Middle and small Watershed of Henan Province". By using the PC rain pattern method and the same frequency analysis rain pattern method, the common short-duration design rain patterns in Pei River small watershed are derived, and the extreme rainfall patterns are deduced according to the local extreme rainfall data in the near future. The results show that the rain pattern obtained is bimodal rain pattern, similar to that obtained by PC method, similar to the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of rainstorm in this small watershed, and the rain pattern calculated by the same frequency analysis method and recent extreme rainstorm is similar to that obtained by PC method. Based on the data of long series rainfall flood in Pei River Basin, the calculation methods and parameters of runoff yield and confluence used in the calculation of design flood and critical rainfall are analyzed. The results show that line I of the rainfall runoff relationship curve in hilly area is suitable for the small watershed in the study area, and the standard unit line provided in the working map issued by the State is used to calculate the confluence. The scheme of runoff yield and confluence is suitable for the study area. (4) using the interpolation method of rainfall runoff relation curve, the critical rainfall corresponding to different rain patterns is calculated, and the influence degree of rain type on critical rainfall is analyzed. The results show that the critical rainfall calculated in the early warning period of 1 h and 2 h has little difference with the critical rainfall calculated in the atlas due to its short duration, and the critical rainfall calculated in the early warning period is 3 h. The difference between the critical rainfall and the rain type in the atlas is quite large, the error is between 5% and 25%, and in the early warning period of 6 h, the critical rainfall is obviously different from the rain type in the atlas because of the bimodal rain type, and the error is between 10% and 50%. It can be concluded that the rain pattern derived from the map set can not be fully adapted to the small watershed, and the different rain patterns have great influence on the critical rainfall. In the early warning operation of mountain torrents, the possible rain patterns should be predicted according to the recent weather forecast information. On this basis, the reasonable selection of early warning indicators, the accurate issuance of early warning instructions. The research contents and results of this paper can supplement the practical and theoretical research support for the calculation of the critical rainfall of mountain torrents, and make the early warning more refined and diversified. At the same time, it has reference value for the actual mountain torrents early warning work.
【学位授予单位】：郑州大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：P426.616

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