中国木材产业采购经理人指数（PMI）的构建、运行系统及其应用价值

发布时间：2017-12-28 09:23

  本文关键词：中国木材产业采购经理人指数（PMI）的构建、运行系统及其应用价值　出处：《北京林业大学》2016年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

  更多相关文章： 采购经理人指数(PMI) 木材产业PMI 三螺旋理论

【摘要】：采购经理人指数(Purchasing Managers' Index,以下简称PMI)是对经济周期波动进行监测的测度指标,因其先导性、科学性等优点被视为经济的晴雨表,并有荒岛指数的美誉。但国家PMI仅仅能大致厘清经济扩张还是收缩,却无法揭示具体行业的阴晴。产业PMI才是衡量百业兴衰的晴雨表。自1929年美国供应管理协会开展PMI指数调查以来,产业PMI也得到了一定发展,比如底特律的汽车PMI、中国的钢铁PMI和化纤PMI。中国国家统计局于2005年开展全国制造业PMI调查,也曾对内发布过产业PMI,但于2013年暂停发布产业PMI。中国木材制造业至今没有反映行业兴衰走势的量化指标。本文以木材产业PMI为切入口,对产业PMI进行全方位深度研究,研究内容包括产业PMI问卷的设计、样本抽样选取、指数合成赋权以及可持续发布PMI的保障运行系统,是国内首个对产业PMI开展系统研究的研究。通过实证研究与案例分析相结合,本文主要有以下几点发现：(1)为保持与国际通行PMI数据的可比性,在问卷设计上,木材产业PMI应与通用PMI问卷保持一致,可补充“用电量”、“技改投入”和“销售额”等行业关键信息。(2)主成分分析结果显示,现有木材产业PMI的赋权存在改进空间,生产、订单、采购、原材料库存和雇员分别以20%、25%、20%、20%和15%的赋权方式合成新木材产业PMI更能反映林业经济的走势。(3)木材产业PMI样本采用PPS抽样选定,样本量初定为384家,分布在造纸、家具、人造板、木地板、建筑用木制品(木门窗木楼梯)、竹产品等6个分产业中,考虑分行业、地域、企业规模的影响进行样本分配,在完成初步抽样之后定期进行动态调整。(4)木材产业PMI能够反映出自身行业的季节规律,可用来监测逆周期行情并进行预警,而这是国家PMI无法实现的。(5)木材产业PMI调查问卷中主观问题可以印证客观问题的真实性,如原材料的量价走势可以印证原材料购进价格指数的正确与否。(6)以三螺旋为基础的PMI运行系统可以延伸政产学研的功能作用,在木材产业PMI乃至其他数据调查时能保障数据的真实性以及可持续性。本文对木材产业PMI的研究方法为产业PMI的开展提供了基本思路和实践经验,不同产业构建PMI过程大同小异,但调查问卷、抽样方法甚至指数合成存在明显的差异。指数的构建并不是一蹴而就、一劳永逸的,需要对其科学性进行系统持续的跟踪和动态调整,以真实反映当前行业运行态势。但传统的单线条式数据发布模式应予以摒弃,开放式的公开数据信息交流系统使政产学研充分进行角色互换才是未来发展趋势。
[Abstract]:Purchasing Managers'Index (hereinafter referred to as PMI) is a measure index for monitoring the economic cycle fluctuation. Because of its forerunner and scientificity, it is regarded as a barometer of the economy and has the reputation of the desert island index. But PMI can only roughly clarify national economic expansion or contraction, but can not reveal the specific industry or. PMI is the industry barometer will rise and fall. Since the PMI index investigation was carried out in 1929, the industry PMI has also been developed, such as Detroit's automobile PMI, China's steel PMI and chemical fiber PMI. The National Bureau of statistics of China carried out the PMI survey of the national manufacturing industry in 2005, and also published the industrial PMI in the industry, but suspended the industrial PMI in 2013. China's wood manufacturing industry has not reflected the quantitative indicators of the trend of the rise and fall of the industry. In this paper, the timber industry PMI as the entrance, the full range of in-depth study of the PMI industry, PMI industry research includes questionnaire design, sample selection, index weighting and sustainable release PMI synthesis guarantee system, is the first domestic research on PMI system of industry development. Through the combination of empirical research and case analysis, this paper mainly has the following findings: (1) to maintain PMI and international comparability of the data in the questionnaire design, the timber industry PMI should be consistent with the general PMI questionnaire, can supplement the "electricity" and "technological input" and "sales" etc. the key of information industry. (2) principal component analysis shows that there is room for improvement in the empowerment of PMI in the existing timber industry. Production, order, purchase, raw material inventory and employees are weighted by 20%, 25%, 20%, 20% and 15% respectively to form the new timber industry PMI, which can better reflect the trend of forestry economy. (3) the timber industry PMI samples selected by PPS sampling, sample size set for 384, distribution of wood products in paper, furniture, wood-based panels, wood flooring, building (wooden doors and windows, wooden stairs), bamboo products and other 6 sub industries, considering the influence of regional industry, and enterprise scale of sample distribution in the dynamic adjustment, after completion of the initial sampling time. (4) the timber industry PMI can reflect the seasonal rules of its own industry, which can be used to monitor the counter cycle market and carry out early warning, which is not realized by the national PMI. (5) the subjective problems in the PMI questionnaire of wood industry can confirm the authenticity of objective problems, such as the trend of raw material volume and price, which can confirm the correctness of raw material purchase price index. (6) the PMI operation system based on the three helix can extend the function of government industry, University and research. It can ensure the authenticity and sustainability of data in the PMI industry and other data survey. In this paper, the research method of PMI in wood industry provides basic ideas and practical experience for the development of industrial PMI. The PMI process in different industries is very similar, but there are obvious differences between questionnaires, sampling methods and even exponential synthesis. Index is not built overnight and once and for all. We need to systematically track and dynamically adjust its scientificity so as to truly reflect the current operation of the industry. But the traditional single line data publishing mode should be abandoned. The open data and information exchange system will make full play of government industry, University and research roles exchange, that is the future development trend.
【学位授予单位】：北京林业大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F426.88
，

本文编号：1345479